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icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$419,653 Vol.

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$419,653 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises in August 2026 emphasized realistic contingencies, reservist mobilization, supply-chain resilience, and drone capabilities, while China continued gray-zone maritime patrols and law-enforcement operations east of the island. These patterns reflect sustained pressure short of invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments have indicated no planned amphibious operation through 2027, and Beijing’s own statements continue to prioritize diplomatic and economic leverage alongside military signaling. Reports highlighting severe economic disruption from any blockade or conflict reinforce deterrence incentives for all parties. Trader consensus for no invasion by mid-2027 aligns with the absence of mobilization indicators, combined deterrence from Taiwan, the United States, and regional partners, and China’s preference for non-kinetic measures in the current window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,653
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercises in August 2026 emphasized realistic contingencies, reservist mobilization, supply-chain resilience, and drone capabilities, while China continued gray-zone maritime patrols and law-enforcement operations east of the island. These patterns reflect sustained pressure short of invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments have indicated no planned amphibious operation through 2027, and Beijing’s own statements continue to prioritize diplomatic and economic leverage alongside military signaling. Reports highlighting severe economic disruption from any blockade or conflict reinforce deterrence incentives for all parties. Trader consensus for no invasion by mid-2027 aligns with the absence of mobilization indicators, combined deterrence from Taiwan, the United States, and regional partners, and China’s preference for non-kinetic measures in the current window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,653
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A China vai invadir Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" has generated $419.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" is "A China vai invadir Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.