Skip to main content
icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?
Geopolítica·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

icon for A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?
Geopolítica·China

A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?

jun 30

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

jun 30

set 30

dez 31

jun 30, 2027

Sim

15% chance
Polymarket

$183,131 Vol.

Sim

15% chance
Polymarket

$183,131 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization or escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. During the May 13-14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping warned of potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and U.S. arms sales, yet talks emphasized de-escalation alongside Iran war and trade issues, with no reported heightened PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Chinese leaders lack a fixed invasion timeline for 2027, favoring non-military unification paths. Cross-strait gestures, including resumed direct flights after KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April meeting with Xi, underscore economic integration efforts over confrontation, while Taiwan advances defense spending and U.S. alliances deter aggression despite gray-zone patrols.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$183,131
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of verifiable military mobilization or escalation signals amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. During the May 13-14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping warned of potential U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan and U.S. arms sales, yet talks emphasized de-escalation alongside Iran war and trade issues, with no reported heightened PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Chinese leaders lack a fixed invasion timeline for 2027, favoring non-military unification paths. Cross-strait gestures, including resumed direct flights after KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun's April meeting with Xi, underscore economic integration efforts over confrontation, while Taiwan advances defense spending and U.S. alliances deter aggression despite gray-zone patrols.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$183,131
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A China vai invadir Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" has generated $183.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" is "A China vai invadir Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A China invadirá Taiwan até 30 de junho de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.