Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid routine PLA military drills and Coast Guard patrols tracked through early May, including minor intrusions near Penghu islands on April 27. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China is unlikely to invade even in 2027, citing economic constraints, logistical hurdles, and robust deterrence from U.S. arms sales and joint exercises like Balikatan. President Trump's May 13 arrival in Beijing for Xi summit talks on trade, Iran, and Taiwan underscores diplomatic channels over conflict. Realistic shifts could stem from summit breakdowns, sudden blockades, or cyber escalations, though barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$461,035 Vol.
$461,035 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
$461,035 Vol.
$461,035 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid routine PLA military drills and Coast Guard patrols tracked through early May, including minor intrusions near Penghu islands on April 27. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China is unlikely to invade even in 2027, citing economic constraints, logistical hurdles, and robust deterrence from U.S. arms sales and joint exercises like Balikatan. President Trump's May 13 arrival in Beijing for Xi summit talks on trade, Iran, and Taiwan underscores diplomatic channels over conflict. Realistic shifts could stem from summit breakdowns, sudden blockades, or cyber escalations, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$461,035Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid routine PLA military drills and Coast Guard patrols tracked through early May, including minor intrusions near Penghu islands on April 27. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China is unlikely to invade even in 2027, citing economic constraints, logistical hurdles, and robust deterrence from U.S. arms sales and joint exercises like Balikatan. President Trump's May 13 arrival in Beijing for Xi summit talks on trade, Iran, and Taiwan underscores diplomatic channels over conflict. Realistic shifts could stem from summit breakdowns, sudden blockades, or cyber escalations, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$461,135Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals amid routine PLA military drills and Coast Guard patrols tracked through early May, including minor intrusions near Penghu islands on April 27. U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China is unlikely to invade even in 2027, citing economic constraints, logistical hurdles, and robust deterrence from U.S. arms sales and joint exercises like Balikatan. President Trump's May 13 arrival in Beijing for Xi summit talks on trade, Iran, and Taiwan underscores diplomatic channels over conflict. Realistic shifts could stem from summit breakdowns, sudden blockades, or cyber escalations, though barriers remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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