Traders assign a 99.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale mobilization, amphibious preparations, or official statements indicating imminent action in recent weeks. U.S. intelligence assessments have concluded that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification by force, while ongoing People’s Liberation Army exercises focus on unmanned systems integration and routine drills rather than operational invasion posture. Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises and civil defense preparations underscore defensive readiness without corresponding cross-strait escalation signals. The short remaining window further constrains feasibility, as any full-scale amphibious campaign requires extensive prior buildup. Potential shifts could stem from an unanticipated diplomatic breakdown or sudden leadership decision, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.