Traders assign a 98.8 percent probability that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan before September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, sustained blockade preparations, or intelligence assessments indicating imminent action. Recent U.S. reporting has assessed that Beijing is not committed to a 2027 timeline and continues to prioritize coercive gray-zone tactics, military modernization, and routine exercises over direct conflict. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills and related civil-defense measures underscore ongoing preparedness but have not triggered corresponding escalatory signals from Beijing. An invasion in the remaining weeks would require detectable logistics and force movements that have not materialized. Late developments such as an unanticipated crisis or miscalculation could still shift assessments, though current conditions point to continued stability through the resolution date.