Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to consume substantial resources, with recent mutual strikes—including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries in August 2026—highlighting the war's attrition dynamics and Moscow's focus on incremental territorial adjustments rather than new fronts. High casualties, recruitment pressures, and economic constraints tied to sanctions have limited Russia's conventional capacity for additional invasions, while NATO deterrence and diplomatic channels reduce incentives for escalation beyond the current theater. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects these sustained commitments and the absence of verified preparations or official signals targeting other states, though hybrid measures or shifts in the Ukraine conflict could still influence the remaining months of the year.