Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine continue to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, equipment, and manpower, with recent assessments showing slowed advances in Donetsk and limited territorial gains through mid-2026. Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics and energy infrastructure, combined with sustained Western support, have further constrained Moscow’s ability to open a second conventional front. No verified large-scale troop movements, official declarations, or preparations point to a planned invasion of another state this year. Trader pricing reflects these battlefield and resource realities, assigning only a low probability to a new conventional operation before year-end while acknowledging that hybrid actions or post-2026 shifts remain possible.