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icon for Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?
Política·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?

icon for Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?
Política·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$1,975,834 Vol.

Sim

24% chance
Polymarket

$1,975,834 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalated US surveillance flights and new sanctions targeting Cuba's military enterprises amid a fuel blockade causing widespread blackouts and protests, CIA Director John Ratcliffe's May 14 visit to Havana—meeting officials including Raúl Castro's grandson—delivered President Trump's message demanding fundamental reforms for any economic or security cooperation, underscoring ongoing diplomacy over kinetic action. US officials reiterated no imminent military operations despite Trump rhetoric framing Cuba as "next" after Iran and Pentagon contingency planning in April. With forces committed to Middle East conflicts and no major Cuban provocation, traders reflect 77.5% odds against invasion by December 31, 2026, prioritizing economic pressure and historical aversion to high-cost interventions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,975,834
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid escalated US surveillance flights and new sanctions targeting Cuba's military enterprises amid a fuel blockade causing widespread blackouts and protests, CIA Director John Ratcliffe's May 14 visit to Havana—meeting officials including Raúl Castro's grandson—delivered President Trump's message demanding fundamental reforms for any economic or security cooperation, underscoring ongoing diplomacy over kinetic action. US officials reiterated no imminent military operations despite Trump rhetoric framing Cuba as "next" after Iran and Pentagon contingency planning in April. With forces committed to Middle East conflicts and no major Cuban provocation, traders reflect 77.5% odds against invasion by December 31, 2026, prioritizing economic pressure and historical aversion to high-cost interventions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,975,834
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" is "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.