Bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Mexico has intensified through joint operations, extraditions, and high-level talks focused on countering cartels and fentanyl flows, with both governments publicly affirming respect for sovereignty and rejecting unilateral troop deployments. Mexican officials have consistently stated that foreign military intervention is off the table, while U.S. actions have centered on targeted maritime interdictions and shared intelligence rather than ground incursions. Deep economic integration under USMCA and the absence of formal war declarations or large-scale troop movements reinforce trader consensus against a full invasion. Late-year shifts could still arise from major cartel escalations, breakdown in talks, or unexpected policy changes, though structural barriers including domestic politics and international norms limit such risks.