**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated attacks on vessels have suppressed ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of pre-February 2026 levels.** Before the war began on February 28, daily transits averaged 100–130 ships; recent data show five-day averages near 13 and isolated 24-hour counts at or near zero amid an active U.S. blockade and elevated war-risk insurance. For the week of August 17, this points to a weekly total most likely in the 25–49 range (currently priced at 59%), with a meaningful chance of falling below 25 (37.5%). Higher buckets remain negligible because attacks persisted into mid-August—including incidents on August 13 and 15—and diplomatic talks remain stalled, deterring commercial operators. Traders are pricing in sustained caution: shipping lines continue rerouting or idling vessels, AIS data undercounts “dark” transits but still registers far fewer movements than historical norms, and no near-term catalyst (such as a verified ceasefire or escorted reopening) has materialized to restore meaningful volume. The market-implied odds therefore reflect real-time risk aversion backed by capital, with the narrow 25–49 band capturing the most probable outcome under current conditions of intermittent violence and enforcement.