The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe domestic and external pressures underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic collapse, currency devaluation, and inflation spread across all provinces but were met with a large-scale security crackdown involving internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained unrest by mid-January 2026, with only sporadic smaller actions continuing. Security institutions stayed cohesive, showing no widespread defections. The February 2026 US-Israel military campaign, which included strikes decapitating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, triggered a transition to interim collective leadership under the constitution that maintained operational continuity. Iran responded with missile and drone retaliation, participated in an April ceasefire (later strained), and sustained core state functions through the summer despite renewed clashes and economic strain. Analysts note that repeated protest waves since 2019, combined with sanctions and regional setbacks, have not produced elite fractures or opposition unity sufficient for regime change, consistent with the Islamic Republic's historical pattern of adaptation under duress.