**Trader consensus favoring "No" (79.5%) reflects the high threshold for formal expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, a rare diplomatic step that signals major bilateral rupture.** Recent Canadian developments illustrate this dynamic: a parliamentary petition launched in July 2026 calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has amassed over 200,000 signatures amid trade tensions and public discontent with U.S. policy under President Trump. The petition seeks to declare him persona non grata but remains a non-binding expression of sentiment, with no government action taken and the ambassador still in post as of late August. Comparable strains in other relationships have produced ambassadorial vacancies or recall patterns on the U.S. side rather than host-country expulsions. Historical precedent shows such actions are infrequent absent acute crises, and no verified expulsions have occurred in 2025–2026 despite diplomatic friction. Resolution depends on an actual host-government decision before year-end; scheduled parliamentary discussion of the Canadian petition offers limited near-term catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus favoring "No" (79.5%) reflects the high threshold for formal expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, a rare diplomatic step that signals major bilateral rupture.**
Recent Canadian developments illustrate this dynamic: a parliamentary petition launched in July 2026 calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has amassed over 200,000 signatures amid trade tensions and public discontent with U.S. policy under President Trump. The petition seeks to declare him persona non grata but remains a non-binding expression of sentiment, with no government action taken and the ambassador still in post as of late August.
Comparable strains in other relationships have produced ambassadorial vacancies or recall patterns on the U.S. side rather than host-country expulsions. Historical precedent shows such actions are infrequent absent acute crises, and no verified expulsions have occurred in 2025–2026 despite diplomatic friction.
Resolution depends on an actual host-government decision before year-end; scheduled parliamentary discussion of the Canadian petition offers limited near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Trader consensus favoring "No" (79.5%) reflects the high threshold for formal expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, a rare diplomatic step that signals major bilateral rupture.**
Recent Canadian developments illustrate this dynamic: a parliamentary petition launched in July 2026 calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has amassed over 200,000 signatures amid trade tensions and public discontent with U.S. policy under President Trump. The petition seeks to declare him persona non grata but remains a non-binding expression of sentiment, with no government action taken and the ambassador still in post as of late August.
Comparable strains in other relationships have produced ambassadorial vacancies or recall patterns on the U.S. side rather than host-country expulsions. Historical precedent shows such actions are infrequent absent acute crises, and no verified expulsions have occurred in 2025–2026 despite diplomatic friction.
Resolution depends on an actual host-government decision before year-end; scheduled parliamentary discussion of the Canadian petition offers limited near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" (79.5%) reflects the high threshold for formal expulsion of a U.S. ambassador, a rare diplomatic step that signals major bilateral rupture.** Recent Canadian developments illustrate this dynamic: a parliamentary petition launched in July 2026 calling for the removal of Ambassador Pete Hoekstra has amassed over 200,000 signatures amid trade tensions and public discontent with U.S. policy under President Trump. The petition seeks to declare him persona non grata but remains a non-binding expression of sentiment, with no government action taken and the ambassador still in post as of late August. Comparable strains in other relationships have produced ambassadorial vacancies or recall patterns on the U.S. side rather than host-country expulsions. Historical precedent shows such actions are infrequent absent acute crises, and no verified expulsions have occurred in 2025–2026 despite diplomatic friction. Resolution depends on an actual host-government decision before year-end; scheduled parliamentary discussion of the Canadian petition offers limited near-term catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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