Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning on Bab el-Mandeb transits, with the <160 outcome leading at 33% amid elevated insurance premiums and sustained rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated freight rates and longer voyage times have prompted carriers to prioritize safety over the shorter route, compressing weekly volumes below historical baselines of roughly 200+ ships. Competitive dynamics among the tightly bunched outcomes reflect uncertainty around near-term catalysts, including potential naval escalations or any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter risk assessments before week-end data finalizes. Traders weigh these factors against seasonal trade patterns and container shipping demand.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 17 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 17 de agosto?
<160 32%
180-199 26%
160-179 23%
200+ 20%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<160
32%
160-179
23%
180-199
26%
200+
20%
<160 32%
180-199 26%
160-179 23%
200+ 20%
NOVO
NOVO
23 ago 2026
<160
$2,308 Vol.
32%
160-179
$1,516 Vol.
23%
180-199
$1,385 Vol.
26%
200+
$1,243 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning on Bab el-Mandeb transits, with the <160 outcome leading at 33% amid elevated insurance premiums and sustained rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated freight rates and longer voyage times have prompted carriers to prioritize safety over the shorter route, compressing weekly volumes below historical baselines of roughly 200+ ships. Competitive dynamics among the tightly bunched outcomes reflect uncertainty around near-term catalysts, including potential naval escalations or any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter risk assessments before week-end data finalizes. Traders weigh these factors against seasonal trade patterns and container shipping demand.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$6,453Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning on Bab el-Mandeb transits, with the <160 outcome leading at 33% amid elevated insurance premiums and sustained rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated freight rates and longer voyage times have prompted carriers to prioritize safety over the shorter route, compressing weekly volumes below historical baselines of roughly 200+ ships. Competitive dynamics among the tightly bunched outcomes reflect uncertainty around near-term catalysts, including potential naval escalations or any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter risk assessments before week-end data finalizes. Traders weigh these factors against seasonal trade patterns and container shipping demand.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$6,453Data de Término
23 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning on Bab el-Mandeb transits, with the <160 outcome leading at 33% amid elevated insurance premiums and sustained rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Elevated freight rates and longer voyage times have prompted carriers to prioritize safety over the shorter route, compressing weekly volumes below historical baselines of roughly 200+ ships. Competitive dynamics among the tightly bunched outcomes reflect uncertainty around near-term catalysts, including potential naval escalations or any diplomatic de-escalation signals that could alter risk assessments before week-end data finalizes. Traders weigh these factors against seasonal trade patterns and container shipping demand.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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