Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, now at 7.5–10% of hull value for Strait of Hormuz transits, reflect sustained supply-disruption concerns following early-2026 U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran’s temporary closure attempt. Brent crude incorporated a roughly $14 risk premium in March before easing toward $100 amid a fragile cease-fire, while freight rates for Gulf-to-Asia crude cargoes remain four times their five-year average. Trader sentiment centers on whether European and Asian nations—previously signaled by the U.S. as potential coalition partners—will commit assets before the August 31 resolution date, given the waterway’s role in 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Stable cease-fire compliance and continued high energy-price volatility remain the key swing factors for near-term positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais países enviarão navios de guerra através do Estreito de Ormuz até 31 de agosto?
Quais países enviarão navios de guerra através do Estreito de Ormuz até 31 de agosto?
NOVO
31 ago 2026
EUA
27%
Reino Unido
6%
França
5%
Alemanha
5%
Países Baixos
5%
Austrália
4%
Grécia
3%
Itália
2%
$2,538 Vol.
EUA
$751 Vol.
27%
Reino Unido
$301 Vol.
6%
França
$0 Vol.
5%
Alemanha
$519 Vol.
5%
Países Baixos
$0 Vol.
5%
Austrália
$851 Vol.
4%
Grécia
$31 Vol.
3%
Itália
$85 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, now at 7.5–10% of hull value for Strait of Hormuz transits, reflect sustained supply-disruption concerns following early-2026 U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran’s temporary closure attempt. Brent crude incorporated a roughly $14 risk premium in March before easing toward $100 amid a fragile cease-fire, while freight rates for Gulf-to-Asia crude cargoes remain four times their five-year average. Trader sentiment centers on whether European and Asian nations—previously signaled by the U.S. as potential coalition partners—will commit assets before the August 31 resolution date, given the waterway’s role in 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Stable cease-fire compliance and continued high energy-price volatility remain the key swing factors for near-term positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$2,538Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, now at 7.5–10% of hull value for Strait of Hormuz transits, reflect sustained supply-disruption concerns following early-2026 U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran’s temporary closure attempt. Brent crude incorporated a roughly $14 risk premium in March before easing toward $100 amid a fragile cease-fire, while freight rates for Gulf-to-Asia crude cargoes remain four times their five-year average. Trader sentiment centers on whether European and Asian nations—previously signaled by the U.S. as potential coalition partners—will commit assets before the August 31 resolution date, given the waterway’s role in 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Stable cease-fire compliance and continued high energy-price volatility remain the key swing factors for near-term positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$2,538Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, now at 7.5–10% of hull value for Strait of Hormuz transits, reflect sustained supply-disruption concerns following early-2026 U.S.-Iran naval tensions and Iran’s temporary closure attempt. Brent crude incorporated a roughly $14 risk premium in March before easing toward $100 amid a fragile cease-fire, while freight rates for Gulf-to-Asia crude cargoes remain four times their five-year average. Trader sentiment centers on whether European and Asian nations—previously signaled by the U.S. as potential coalition partners—will commit assets before the August 31 resolution date, given the waterway’s role in 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Stable cease-fire compliance and continued high energy-price volatility remain the key swing factors for near-term positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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