This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 23%26%
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, D.C., under US mediation, outlining a plan for Israel to withdraw from two small areas in southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese forces. The deal linked Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah rejected, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal and causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to remain low.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, further dampening market hopes for a full withdrawal by the end of June or July 2026.
Jun 22 2026
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces forces will remain in southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone "for as long as necessary," rejecting calls for withdrawal despite a ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reduced market expectations for a withdrawal by mid-2026.
Jun 15 2026
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 23%26%
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, D.C., under US mediation, outlining a plan for Israel to withdraw from two small areas in southern Lebanon, replaced by Lebanese forces. The deal linked Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah rejected, maintaining uncertainty about full withdrawal and causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to remain low.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Jun 24 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
July 31 dips to 2%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, further dampening market hopes for a full withdrawal by the end of June or July 2026.
Jun 22 2026
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces forces will remain in southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would stay in the Lebanon security buffer zone "for as long as necessary," rejecting calls for withdrawal despite a ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reduced market expectations for a withdrawal by mid-2026.
Jun 15 2026
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
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Frequently Asked Questions
"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 24%, followed by "September 30" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 24¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" has generated $6.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is "December 31" at 24%, meaning the market assigns a 24% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 30" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $6.9 million traded on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 24¢ for "December 31" in the "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 24% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 24¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 76¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" market has an active community of 210 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions