Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIsrael se retira do Líbano por...?
Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
$1,486,408 Vol.
30 jun 2026
31 de maio
2%
30 de junho
10%
$1,486,408 Vol.
31 de maio
$1,212,491 Vol.
2%
30 de junho
$198,911 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,486,408Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,486,408Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces have sustained a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon after the April 2026 ceasefire, while conducting ongoing airstrikes against Hezbollah targets and rejecting full withdrawal without prior disarmament of the group. Recent direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, along with U.S. involvement, have produced only temporary lulls in fighting rather than binding commitments on troop pullbacks. Traders assign low single-digit probabilities to withdrawal by late May or June 2026 deadlines because Hezbollah continues to rebuild infrastructure south of the Litani River and Israeli officials have tied any exit to verifiable security guarantees. Upcoming diplomatic sessions and enforcement of the 2024 ceasefire framework remain the main variables that could shift the timeline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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