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Nuclear previsões e probabilidades

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US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

45%

December 31

$3M Vol.

$277K today

$2M Liq.

83

Ends em 2 meses

Russia nuclear test by...?

Russia nuclear test by...?

10%

December 31, 2026

$6M Vol.

$97.5K Liq.

8

Ends há 3 meses

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

6%

$218K Vol.

$46.0K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

U.S. nuclear test by...?

U.S. nuclear test by...?

8%

December 31, 2026

$714K Vol.

$44.6K Liq.

22

Ends há 3 meses

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?

14%

$54.4K Vol.

$32.5K Liq.

2

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

12%

July 31

$604K Vol.

$18.8K Liq.

37

Ends em 1 dia

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

15%

December 31, 2026

$560K Vol.

$10.7K Liq.

29

Ends há 3 meses

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

26%

$24.1K Vol.

$1.6K Liq.

2

Ends em 6 meses

Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?

47%

$3.1K Vol.

$653 Liq.

5

Ends em 2 meses

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

49%

Switzerland

$250K Vol.

$76.0K today

$578K Liq.

Ends em 3 meses

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

21%

December 31

$17M Vol.

$57.1K today

$433K Liq.

210

Ends em 6 meses

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

1%

$12M Vol.

$85.1K today

$285K Liq.

Ends em 1 dia

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

50%

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$82.7K Vol.

$183K Liq.

3

Ends em 6 meses

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

6%

$989K Vol.

$133K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

30%

$1M Vol.

$74.8K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

8%

$744K Vol.

$52.9K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12%

$192K Vol.

$23.7K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Nothing Ever Happens: July

80%

Nothing

$5.0K Vol.

$12.7K Liq.

Ends em cerca de 1 mês

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

8%

$52.6K Vol.

$24.3K Liq.

Ends em 6 meses

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Nuclear.

Polymarket currently hosts 19 active markets for Nuclear that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $43.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 21% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Nuclear predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.