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icon for O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

icon for O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Nuclear

O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

8% chance
Polymarket

$121,662 Vol.

Sim

8% chance
Polymarket

$121,662 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian officials revived threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025, prompting a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 that remains stalled without further votes or passage. Tehran continues to submit working papers for the 2026 NPT Review Conference and maintains IAEA safeguards reporting, consistent with its participation since joining in 1974. These patterns of diplomatic engagement and absence of formal Article X notification to the United Nations underpin trader consensus that withdrawal is unlikely before 2027, despite periodic rhetoric. Potential triggers such as renewed sanctions snapback or escalated conflict could alter dynamics, but historical precedent favors continued membership amid isolation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,662
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian officials revived threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025, prompting a fast-tracked parliamentary bill in late March 2026 that remains stalled without further votes or passage. Tehran continues to submit working papers for the 2026 NPT Review Conference and maintains IAEA safeguards reporting, consistent with its participation since joining in 1974. These patterns of diplomatic engagement and absence of formal Article X notification to the United Nations underpin trader consensus that withdrawal is unlikely before 2027, despite periodic rhetoric. Potential triggers such as renewed sanctions snapback or escalated conflict could alter dynamics, but historical precedent favors continued membership amid isolation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,662
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" has generated $121.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" is "O Irã irá se retirar do TNP antes de 2027?" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "O Irã se retirará do TNP antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.