Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to shape trader assessments of whether Tehran will agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, with recent proposals for a long-term moratorium clashing against Iran's insistence on retaining the right to enrich under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched stockpile to lower levels domestically but rejected outright transfer abroad or a full halt, citing deep distrust of external demands. These positions, amid post-ceasefire talks mediated indirectly and stalled over verification and sanctions relief, have produced closely balanced odds as traders weigh the potential for phased concessions against entrenched red lines on nuclear sovereignty. A breakthrough in verification protocols or renewed escalation in regional tensions could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to shape trader assessments of whether Tehran will agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, with recent proposals for a long-term moratorium clashing against Iran's insistence on retaining the right to enrich under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched stockpile to lower levels domestically but rejected outright transfer abroad or a full halt, citing deep distrust of external demands. These positions, amid post-ceasefire talks mediated indirectly and stalled over verification and sanctions relief, have produced closely balanced odds as traders weigh the potential for phased concessions against entrenched red lines on nuclear sovereignty. A breakthrough in verification protocols or renewed escalation in regional tensions could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$194,984Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to shape trader assessments of whether Tehran will agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, with recent proposals for a long-term moratorium clashing against Iran's insistence on retaining the right to enrich under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched stockpile to lower levels domestically but rejected outright transfer abroad or a full halt, citing deep distrust of external demands. These positions, amid post-ceasefire talks mediated indirectly and stalled over verification and sanctions relief, have produced closely balanced odds as traders weigh the potential for phased concessions against entrenched red lines on nuclear sovereignty. A breakthrough in verification protocols or renewed escalation in regional tensions could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,984Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to shape trader assessments of whether Tehran will agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31, with recent proposals for a long-term moratorium clashing against Iran's insistence on retaining the right to enrich under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched stockpile to lower levels domestically but rejected outright transfer abroad or a full halt, citing deep distrust of external demands. These positions, amid post-ceasefire talks mediated indirectly and stalled over verification and sanctions relief, have produced closely balanced odds as traders weigh the potential for phased concessions against entrenched red lines on nuclear sovereignty. A breakthrough in verification protocols or renewed escalation in regional tensions could shift probabilities in either direction before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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