The U.S. has maintained a 34-year moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal without full detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Trump administration signals in March 2026, including preparations for potential underground tests amid reported Chinese and Russian activities, drove brief trader optimism, but no test has occurred, with Senate visits like Sen. Rosen's April observation of non-explosive work underscoring ongoing debate. Low trader consensus—2% by June 30, 6% by September 30, and 9% by year-end—reflects barriers like congressional funding hurdles, CTBT pressures, and institutional inertia, though executive orders or adversary escalations could shift odds ahead of FY2027 NNSA budget decisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear dos EUA por...?
Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?
$665,494 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junho de 2026
2%
30 de setembro de 2026
6%
31 de dezembro de 2026
9%
$665,494 Vol.
30 de junho de 2026
$39,475 Vol.
2%
30 de setembro de 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a 34-year moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal without full detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Trump administration signals in March 2026, including preparations for potential underground tests amid reported Chinese and Russian activities, drove brief trader optimism, but no test has occurred, with Senate visits like Sen. Rosen's April observation of non-explosive work underscoring ongoing debate. Low trader consensus—2% by June 30, 6% by September 30, and 9% by year-end—reflects barriers like congressional funding hurdles, CTBT pressures, and institutional inertia, though executive orders or adversary escalations could shift odds ahead of FY2027 NNSA budget decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$665,494Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a 34-year moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal without full detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Trump administration signals in March 2026, including preparations for potential underground tests amid reported Chinese and Russian activities, drove brief trader optimism, but no test has occurred, with Senate visits like Sen. Rosen's April observation of non-explosive work underscoring ongoing debate. Low trader consensus—2% by June 30, 6% by September 30, and 9% by year-end—reflects barriers like congressional funding hurdles, CTBT pressures, and institutional inertia, though executive orders or adversary escalations could shift odds ahead of FY2027 NNSA budget decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$665,494Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a 34-year moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its arsenal without full detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. Trump administration signals in March 2026, including preparations for potential underground tests amid reported Chinese and Russian activities, drove brief trader optimism, but no test has occurred, with Senate visits like Sen. Rosen's April observation of non-explosive work underscoring ongoing debate. Low trader consensus—2% by June 30, 6% by September 30, and 9% by year-end—reflects barriers like congressional funding hurdles, CTBT pressures, and institutional inertia, though executive orders or adversary escalations could shift odds ahead of FY2027 NNSA budget decisions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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