Russia’s rejection of recent Ukrainian and Turkish proposals for a limited Black Sea maritime truce on August 13–14, 2026, underscores Moscow’s insistence on maximalist terms that include Ukrainian territorial concessions and security restrictions short of NATO membership. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated on August 14 that any ceasefire must deliver a “long-term, reliable” settlement on Russia’s conditions rather than freezing the current line of contact. These statements align with stalled U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, repeated short-lived pauses that collapsed amid mutual violations, and persistent ground offensives plus deep strikes by both sides. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability given the absence of substantive diplomatic momentum or de-escalation signals ahead of Russia’s September State Duma elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAcordo de cessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até...?
Acordo de cessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até...?
$5,911,593 Vol.
31 out 2026
31 de outubro
11%
31 de agosto
2%
31 de dezembro
27%
$5,911,593 Vol.
31 de outubro
$846,530 Vol.
11%
31 de agosto
$389,074 Vol.
2%
31 de dezembro
$2,138,657 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s rejection of recent Ukrainian and Turkish proposals for a limited Black Sea maritime truce on August 13–14, 2026, underscores Moscow’s insistence on maximalist terms that include Ukrainian territorial concessions and security restrictions short of NATO membership. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated on August 14 that any ceasefire must deliver a “long-term, reliable” settlement on Russia’s conditions rather than freezing the current line of contact. These statements align with stalled U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, repeated short-lived pauses that collapsed amid mutual violations, and persistent ground offensives plus deep strikes by both sides. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability given the absence of substantive diplomatic momentum or de-escalation signals ahead of Russia’s September State Duma elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$5,911,593Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s rejection of recent Ukrainian and Turkish proposals for a limited Black Sea maritime truce on August 13–14, 2026, underscores Moscow’s insistence on maximalist terms that include Ukrainian territorial concessions and security restrictions short of NATO membership. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated on August 14 that any ceasefire must deliver a “long-term, reliable” settlement on Russia’s conditions rather than freezing the current line of contact. These statements align with stalled U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, repeated short-lived pauses that collapsed amid mutual violations, and persistent ground offensives plus deep strikes by both sides. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability given the absence of substantive diplomatic momentum or de-escalation signals ahead of Russia’s September State Duma elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,911,593Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s rejection of recent Ukrainian and Turkish proposals for a limited Black Sea maritime truce on August 13–14, 2026, underscores Moscow’s insistence on maximalist terms that include Ukrainian territorial concessions and security restrictions short of NATO membership. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated on August 14 that any ceasefire must deliver a “long-term, reliable” settlement on Russia’s conditions rather than freezing the current line of contact. These statements align with stalled U.S.-mediated talks since 2025, repeated short-lived pauses that collapsed amid mutual violations, and persistent ground offensives plus deep strikes by both sides. Traders price a full ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability given the absence of substantive diplomatic momentum or de-escalation signals ahead of Russia’s September State Duma elections.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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