Ongoing military stalemate and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to shape trader consensus on the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with No holding firm near 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee gaps, and Russia's rejection of any freeze in hostilities mirror a matchup where both sides show strong defensive form and limited offensive breakthroughs in recent months. Temporary ceasefires, including the April 2026 Easter pause, failed to hold, reflecting poor momentum toward agreement despite Ukraine's proposals delivered to American envoys and expected visits by negotiators Witkoff and Kushner. Roster uncertainties around leadership statements and upcoming Russian parliamentary elections add further barriers, underscoring why the wisdom of crowds prices a swift resolution as unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$598,628 Vol.
$598,628 Vol.
Sim
$598,628 Vol.
$598,628 Vol.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military stalemate and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to shape trader consensus on the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with No holding firm near 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee gaps, and Russia's rejection of any freeze in hostilities mirror a matchup where both sides show strong defensive form and limited offensive breakthroughs in recent months. Temporary ceasefires, including the April 2026 Easter pause, failed to hold, reflecting poor momentum toward agreement despite Ukraine's proposals delivered to American envoys and expected visits by negotiators Witkoff and Kushner. Roster uncertainties around leadership statements and upcoming Russian parliamentary elections add further barriers, underscoring why the wisdom of crowds prices a swift resolution as unlikely.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado


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