Skip to main content
icon for Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia

Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia

icon for Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia

Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$598,628 Vol.

Sim

10% chance
Polymarket

$598,628 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfOngoing military stalemate and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to shape trader consensus on the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with No holding firm near 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee gaps, and Russia's rejection of any freeze in hostilities mirror a matchup where both sides show strong defensive form and limited offensive breakthroughs in recent months. Temporary ceasefires, including the April 2026 Easter pause, failed to hold, reflecting poor momentum toward agreement despite Ukraine's proposals delivered to American envoys and expected visits by negotiators Witkoff and Kushner. Roster uncertainties around leadership statements and upcoming Russian parliamentary elections add further barriers, underscoring why the wisdom of crowds prices a swift resolution as unlikely.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$598,628
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfOngoing military stalemate and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to shape trader consensus on the Russia-Ukraine peace parlay, with No holding firm near 90.5% implied probability ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution. Persistent territorial disputes, security guarantee gaps, and Russia's rejection of any freeze in hostilities mirror a matchup where both sides show strong defensive form and limited offensive breakthroughs in recent months. Temporary ceasefires, including the April 2026 Easter pause, failed to hold, reflecting poor momentum toward agreement despite Ukraine's proposals delivered to American envoys and expected visits by negotiators Witkoff and Kushner. Roster uncertainties around leadership statements and upcoming Russian parliamentary elections add further barriers, underscoring why the wisdom of crowds prices a swift resolution as unlikely.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$598,628
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rússia x Ucrânia: Diálogo pela Paz" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia" has generated $598.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia" is "Rússia x Ucrânia: Diálogo pela Paz" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Parlay de paz Rússia x Ucrânia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.