Ukraine’s continued pursuit of NATO membership amid stalled alliance consensus explains the 80% trader probability against any formal agreement to forgo accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted that membership remains off the short-term agenda due to the active conflict with Russia and reservations from several allies, including the United States, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, despite the alliance’s repeated reaffirmation of an “irreversible path” and removal of the Membership Action Plan requirement. Ukrainian public opinion shows sustained support above 68% for joining, and President Zelenskyy has not advanced any binding moratorium in recent diplomatic statements. Without unanimous approval or completion of required interoperability reforms, the conditions for such an agreement remain unmet within the 2027 window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$99,691 Vol.
$99,691 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$99,691 Vol.
$99,691 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s continued pursuit of NATO membership amid stalled alliance consensus explains the 80% trader probability against any formal agreement to forgo accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted that membership remains off the short-term agenda due to the active conflict with Russia and reservations from several allies, including the United States, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, despite the alliance’s repeated reaffirmation of an “irreversible path” and removal of the Membership Action Plan requirement. Ukrainian public opinion shows sustained support above 68% for joining, and President Zelenskyy has not advanced any binding moratorium in recent diplomatic statements. Without unanimous approval or completion of required interoperability reforms, the conditions for such an agreement remain unmet within the 2027 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$99,691Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s continued pursuit of NATO membership amid stalled alliance consensus explains the 80% trader probability against any formal agreement to forgo accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted that membership remains off the short-term agenda due to the active conflict with Russia and reservations from several allies, including the United States, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, despite the alliance’s repeated reaffirmation of an “irreversible path” and removal of the Membership Action Plan requirement. Ukrainian public opinion shows sustained support above 68% for joining, and President Zelenskyy has not advanced any binding moratorium in recent diplomatic statements. Without unanimous approval or completion of required interoperability reforms, the conditions for such an agreement remain unmet within the 2027 window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$99,691Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s continued pursuit of NATO membership amid stalled alliance consensus explains the 80% trader probability against any formal agreement to forgo accession before 2027. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently noted that membership remains off the short-term agenda due to the active conflict with Russia and reservations from several allies, including the United States, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia, despite the alliance’s repeated reaffirmation of an “irreversible path” and removal of the Membership Action Plan requirement. Ukrainian public opinion shows sustained support above 68% for joining, and President Zelenskyy has not advanced any binding moratorium in recent diplomatic statements. Without unanimous approval or completion of required interoperability reforms, the conditions for such an agreement remain unmet within the 2027 window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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