Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin remains a consolidated autocracy with power concentrated in the executive and loyal security services, limiting pathways for organized challenges from military or elite factions. Heightened Kremlin security protocols reported since March 2026 reflect precautionary responses to drone risks and isolated criticism from milbloggers, yet no coordinated plot or institutional fracturing has materialized. Past precedents, including the rapid suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, and ongoing purges of dissenting voices reinforce regime resilience ahead of the December 31 resolution date. Traders assign only a low single-digit implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because verifiable developments show continuity in leadership control rather than accelerating instability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7% chance
$118,240 Vol.
$118,240 Vol.
31 dez 2026
7% chance
$118,240 Vol.
$118,240 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin remains a consolidated autocracy with power concentrated in the executive and loyal security services, limiting pathways for organized challenges from military or elite factions. Heightened Kremlin security protocols reported since March 2026 reflect precautionary responses to drone risks and isolated criticism from milbloggers, yet no coordinated plot or institutional fracturing has materialized. Past precedents, including the rapid suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, and ongoing purges of dissenting voices reinforce regime resilience ahead of the December 31 resolution date. Traders assign only a low single-digit implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because verifiable developments show continuity in leadership control rather than accelerating instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,240Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin remains a consolidated autocracy with power concentrated in the executive and loyal security services, limiting pathways for organized challenges from military or elite factions. Heightened Kremlin security protocols reported since March 2026 reflect precautionary responses to drone risks and isolated criticism from milbloggers, yet no coordinated plot or institutional fracturing has materialized. Past precedents, including the rapid suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, and ongoing purges of dissenting voices reinforce regime resilience ahead of the December 31 resolution date. Traders assign only a low single-digit implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because verifiable developments show continuity in leadership control rather than accelerating instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,240Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s political system under President Vladimir Putin remains a consolidated autocracy with power concentrated in the executive and loyal security services, limiting pathways for organized challenges from military or elite factions. Heightened Kremlin security protocols reported since March 2026 reflect precautionary responses to drone risks and isolated criticism from milbloggers, yet no coordinated plot or institutional fracturing has materialized. Past precedents, including the rapid suppression of the 2023 Wagner mutiny, and ongoing purges of dissenting voices reinforce regime resilience ahead of the December 31 resolution date. Traders assign only a low single-digit implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because verifiable developments show continuity in leadership control rather than accelerating instability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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