Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian naval and command targets in Crimea, including Sevastopol facilities in late April 2026 and additional drone and missile operations into May, yet these have produced no ground advances onto the peninsula. Russian positions there remain heavily fortified since the 2014 annexation, backed by substantial troop concentrations and the relocation of Black Sea Fleet assets. Front-line fighting continues to favor incremental Russian pressure in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions rather than any Ukrainian push toward Crimea, leaving roughly six weeks until the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no recapture reflects these structural barriers. Only a sudden major escalation, such as unrestricted Western long-range systems enabling a coordinated assault or unexpected Russian collapse in adjacent sectors, could realistically alter the outcome before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Ucrânia recapturará o território da Crimeia até 30 de junho de 2026?
A Ucrânia recapturará o território da Crimeia até 30 de junho de 2026?
Sim
$658,142 Vol.
$658,142 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$658,142 Vol.
$658,142 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian naval and command targets in Crimea, including Sevastopol facilities in late April 2026 and additional drone and missile operations into May, yet these have produced no ground advances onto the peninsula. Russian positions there remain heavily fortified since the 2014 annexation, backed by substantial troop concentrations and the relocation of Black Sea Fleet assets. Front-line fighting continues to favor incremental Russian pressure in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions rather than any Ukrainian push toward Crimea, leaving roughly six weeks until the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no recapture reflects these structural barriers. Only a sudden major escalation, such as unrestricted Western long-range systems enabling a coordinated assault or unexpected Russian collapse in adjacent sectors, could realistically alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$658,142Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian naval and command targets in Crimea, including Sevastopol facilities in late April 2026 and additional drone and missile operations into May, yet these have produced no ground advances onto the peninsula. Russian positions there remain heavily fortified since the 2014 annexation, backed by substantial troop concentrations and the relocation of Black Sea Fleet assets. Front-line fighting continues to favor incremental Russian pressure in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions rather than any Ukrainian push toward Crimea, leaving roughly six weeks until the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no recapture reflects these structural barriers. Only a sudden major escalation, such as unrestricted Western long-range systems enabling a coordinated assault or unexpected Russian collapse in adjacent sectors, could realistically alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$658,142Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces have conducted repeated long-range strikes on Russian naval and command targets in Crimea, including Sevastopol facilities in late April 2026 and additional drone and missile operations into May, yet these have produced no ground advances onto the peninsula. Russian positions there remain heavily fortified since the 2014 annexation, backed by substantial troop concentrations and the relocation of Black Sea Fleet assets. Front-line fighting continues to favor incremental Russian pressure in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions rather than any Ukrainian push toward Crimea, leaving roughly six weeks until the June 30, 2026 resolution date. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no recapture reflects these structural barriers. Only a sudden major escalation, such as unrestricted Western long-range systems enabling a coordinated assault or unexpected Russian collapse in adjacent sectors, could realistically alter the outcome before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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