**Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to “No” because sustained bilateral mediation through U.S. envoys has not produced conditions for a trilateral summit.** As of early September 2026, President Trump’s representatives Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are restarting shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv, carrying a fresh proposal after earlier 2025–early 2026 talks collapsed. Russian demands for territorial concessions, Ukrainian neutrality, and force reductions remain unchanged, while Ukrainian officials express skepticism that workable terms will emerge before spring 2027. Putin and Zelensky have not met directly, and the personal animosity between them continues to block any immediate face-to-face format. The short window remaining in 2026, combined with ongoing airstrikes and the absence of a ceasefire framework, reinforces trader expectations that the three leaders will not appear together before the market resolves. A sudden breakthrough in the current envoy round could still alter the odds, but recent developments point to incremental negotiations rather than a high-profile trilateral event.