**Trilateral leader-level talks remain stalled amid entrenched positions and reliance on lower-level channels.** Despite early 2026 envoy meetings in Abu Dhabi and repeated statements from Trump and Zelensky about sequencing bilateral progress into a potential summit, no such three-way meeting of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky has materialized. Putin has long resisted direct engagement with Zelensky, viewing it as legitimizing the Ukrainian leader, while core disputes over territory and security guarantees have blocked escalation from negotiator or bilateral formats. By mid-2026, relations between Washington and Moscow show renewed strain a year after the Alaska summit, with peace efforts deadlocked and fighting ongoing. Recent bilateral Trump-Zelensky contacts and Zelensky's calls for renewed diplomacy have not produced scheduled leader trilateral plans before year-end. Traders assign only a slim chance to a late breakthrough overcoming these structural barriers.