Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will occur in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance following the January 2026 purge of top People's Liberation Army generals, including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, amid unverified rumors of a failed plot on January 18. State media framed the detentions as anti-corruption measures, quashing speculation and signaling tight control over military and Chinese Communist Party elites, with no subsequent factional unrest, public dissent, or leadership challenges reported through mid-May 2026. This stability aligns with historical patterns of Xi's power consolidation since 2012. Realistic shifts could arise from severe economic contraction, elite infighting, or sudden health issues among key figures, though structural barriers like surveillance and loyalty purges remain formidable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$127,619 Vol.
$127,619 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$127,619 Vol.
$127,619 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will occur in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance following the January 2026 purge of top People's Liberation Army generals, including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, amid unverified rumors of a failed plot on January 18. State media framed the detentions as anti-corruption measures, quashing speculation and signaling tight control over military and Chinese Communist Party elites, with no subsequent factional unrest, public dissent, or leadership challenges reported through mid-May 2026. This stability aligns with historical patterns of Xi's power consolidation since 2012. Realistic shifts could arise from severe economic contraction, elite infighting, or sudden health issues among key figures, though structural barriers like surveillance and loyalty purges remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$127,619Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will occur in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance following the January 2026 purge of top People's Liberation Army generals, including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, amid unverified rumors of a failed plot on January 18. State media framed the detentions as anti-corruption measures, quashing speculation and signaling tight control over military and Chinese Communist Party elites, with no subsequent factional unrest, public dissent, or leadership challenges reported through mid-May 2026. This stability aligns with historical patterns of Xi's power consolidation since 2012. Realistic shifts could arise from severe economic contraction, elite infighting, or sudden health issues among key figures, though structural barriers like surveillance and loyalty purges remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$127,619Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no coup attempt will occur in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance following the January 2026 purge of top People's Liberation Army generals, including Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, amid unverified rumors of a failed plot on January 18. State media framed the detentions as anti-corruption measures, quashing speculation and signaling tight control over military and Chinese Communist Party elites, with no subsequent factional unrest, public dissent, or leadership challenges reported through mid-May 2026. This stability aligns with historical patterns of Xi's power consolidation since 2012. Realistic shifts could arise from severe economic contraction, elite infighting, or sudden health issues among key figures, though structural barriers like surveillance and loyalty purges remain formidable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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