Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized party control and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, framed officially as discipline enforcement, have produced no verifiable coup attempts or coordinated challenges to leadership amid China’s opaque political system. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of elite fractures, strong loyalty mechanisms within the People’s Liberation Army, and the lack of organized opposition capable of mounting such a move in the short term. Remaining low-probability catalysts include sudden leadership health events or acute economic shocks that could fracture elite cohesion before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
4% chance
$153,940 Vol.
$153,940 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$153,940 Vol.
$153,940 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized party control and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, framed officially as discipline enforcement, have produced no verifiable coup attempts or coordinated challenges to leadership amid China’s opaque political system. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of elite fractures, strong loyalty mechanisms within the People’s Liberation Army, and the lack of organized opposition capable of mounting such a move in the short term. Remaining low-probability catalysts include sudden leadership health events or acute economic shocks that could fracture elite cohesion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$153,940Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized party control and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, framed officially as discipline enforcement, have produced no verifiable coup attempts or coordinated challenges to leadership amid China’s opaque political system. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of elite fractures, strong loyalty mechanisms within the People’s Liberation Army, and the lack of organized opposition capable of mounting such a move in the short term. Remaining low-probability catalysts include sudden leadership health events or acute economic shocks that could fracture elite cohesion before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$153,940Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated military purges, including the January 2026 investigation of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia, has reinforced centralized party control and eliminated potential rival networks. These actions, framed officially as discipline enforcement, have produced no verifiable coup attempts or coordinated challenges to leadership amid China’s opaque political system. Trader consensus at 96.3% for no attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of elite fractures, strong loyalty mechanisms within the People’s Liberation Army, and the lack of organized opposition capable of mounting such a move in the short term. Remaining low-probability catalysts include sudden leadership health events or acute economic shocks that could fracture elite cohesion before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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