Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Israeli airspace closures, with multiple temporary shutdowns occurring amid strikes and retaliatory missile and drone attacks earlier in 2026. Airspace has reopened since the peak of the February-July conflict period, yet volatility persists following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July. Recent EASA advisories highlight elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, while temporary measures in June tied to intercepts of missiles from Yemen illustrate how short-notice threats can prompt rapid suspensions affecting commercial flights. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by altering escalation risks or de-escalation signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$26,847,553 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 de agosto
2%
31 de agosto
9%
$26,847,553 Vol.
15 de agosto
$881,242 Vol.
2%
31 de agosto
$943,126 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Israeli airspace closures, with multiple temporary shutdowns occurring amid strikes and retaliatory missile and drone attacks earlier in 2026. Airspace has reopened since the peak of the February-July conflict period, yet volatility persists following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July. Recent EASA advisories highlight elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, while temporary measures in June tied to intercepts of missiles from Yemen illustrate how short-notice threats can prompt rapid suspensions affecting commercial flights. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by altering escalation risks or de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,847,553Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Israeli airspace closures, with multiple temporary shutdowns occurring amid strikes and retaliatory missile and drone attacks earlier in 2026. Airspace has reopened since the peak of the February-July conflict period, yet volatility persists following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July. Recent EASA advisories highlight elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, while temporary measures in June tied to intercepts of missiles from Yemen illustrate how short-notice threats can prompt rapid suspensions affecting commercial flights. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by altering escalation risks or de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,847,553Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Israeli airspace closures, with multiple temporary shutdowns occurring amid strikes and retaliatory missile and drone attacks earlier in 2026. Airspace has reopened since the peak of the February-July conflict period, yet volatility persists following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz in July. Recent EASA advisories highlight elevated risks in the Tel Aviv FIR, while temporary measures in June tied to intercepts of missiles from Yemen illustrate how short-notice threats can prompt rapid suspensions affecting commercial flights. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could shift probabilities by altering escalation risks or de-escalation signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions