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Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

icon for Líder do Irão no final de 2026?
Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.8%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Sem Chefe de Estado 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,459,029 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.8%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.1%

Sem Chefe de Estado 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,459,029 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,070,820 Vol.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$206,309 Vol.

7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$227,967 Vol.

5%

Sem Chefe de Estado

$473,838 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$199,559 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$338,967 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$285,180 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$846,916 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$799,228 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$304,786 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$61,558 Vol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$77,005 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$312,358 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$124,964 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$75,515 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$434,259 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,111 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,708 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,716 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,072 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$74,398 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered an expedited succession process by Iran's Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks. This consolidation under a figure with established security ties and hardline credentials explains the dominant trader consensus around Mojtaba retaining the position through December 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, combined with institutional continuity and the absence of major internal fractures or leadership challenges in recent weeks, reinforces stability expectations. Alternative outcomes, such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register low probabilities due to limited influence within the regime's core structures, though further escalations or procedural shifts by the Assembly of Experts could still alter positioning before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,459,029
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli military strikes triggered an expedited succession process by Iran's Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March with backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerical networks. This consolidation under a figure with established security ties and hardline credentials explains the dominant trader consensus around Mojtaba retaining the position through December 2026. Ongoing regional conflict, combined with institutional continuity and the absence of major internal fractures or leadership challenges in recent weeks, reinforces stability expectations. Alternative outcomes, such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register low probabilities due to limited influence within the regime's core structures, though further escalations or procedural shifts by the Assembly of Experts could still alter positioning before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,459,029
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 65%, followed by "Reza Pahlavi" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" has generated $8.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Reza Pahlavi" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.