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Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

icon for Líder do Irão no final de 2026?
Mundo·Médio Oriente

Líder do Irão no final de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

Sem Chefe de Estado 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,628,390 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.2%

Sem Chefe de Estado 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,628,390 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,035,929 Vol.

82%

Sem Chefe de Estado

$1,148,676 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,396 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,120,634 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,728 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,835 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,080 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,515 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,395 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,856 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,694 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,112 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,282 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,166 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,090 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,738 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,132 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,847 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,173 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,637 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,729 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,722 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,387 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,226 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing because the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran conflict. This rapid, decisive vote by the clerical body established constitutional continuity amid wartime conditions and foreign strikes. Mojtaba's ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij have reinforced regime cohesion, while interim arrangements involving President Pezeshkian and Ayatollah Arafi transitioned smoothly into his confirmed role. Lingering questions around his reported injuries from the attacks and Iran's broader security environment introduce modest uncertainty about whether he will remain in office through December 2026, keeping smaller probabilities attached to reformist figures, other clerics, and scenarios without a single head of state.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,628,390
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing because the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the 2026 Iran conflict. This rapid, decisive vote by the clerical body established constitutional continuity amid wartime conditions and foreign strikes. Mojtaba's ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij have reinforced regime cohesion, while interim arrangements involving President Pezeshkian and Ayatollah Arafi transitioned smoothly into his confirmed role. Lingering questions around his reported injuries from the attacks and Iran's broader security environment introduce modest uncertainty about whether he will remain in office through December 2026, keeping smaller probabilities attached to reformist figures, other clerics, and scenarios without a single head of state.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,628,390
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 82%, followed by "Sem Chefe de Estado" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" has generated $38.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sem Chefe de Estado" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Líder do Irão no final de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.