The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience under Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backing, underpins the 92.8 percent trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by December 2026. Despite the exiled opposition figure's March announcements positioning himself for a transitional role, his April calls for defections from security forces, and May appeals for U.S. support of regime change, no mass internal uprising or elite realignment has materialized amid ongoing repression and proxy conflicts. Historical patterns of authoritarian succession and the absence of verifiable domestic networks capable of installing an external candidate further anchor expectations that structural barriers will persist through the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoReza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Reza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Sim
$1,175,049 Vol.
$1,175,049 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$1,175,049 Vol.
$1,175,049 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience under Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backing, underpins the 92.8 percent trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by December 2026. Despite the exiled opposition figure's March announcements positioning himself for a transitional role, his April calls for defections from security forces, and May appeals for U.S. support of regime change, no mass internal uprising or elite realignment has materialized amid ongoing repression and proxy conflicts. Historical patterns of authoritarian succession and the absence of verifiable domestic networks capable of installing an external candidate further anchor expectations that structural barriers will persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$1,175,049Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience under Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backing, underpins the 92.8 percent trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by December 2026. Despite the exiled opposition figure's March announcements positioning himself for a transitional role, his April calls for defections from security forces, and May appeals for U.S. support of regime change, no mass internal uprising or elite realignment has materialized amid ongoing repression and proxy conflicts. Historical patterns of authoritarian succession and the absence of verifiable domestic networks capable of installing an external candidate further anchor expectations that structural barriers will persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,175,049Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience under Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backing, underpins the 92.8 percent trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by December 2026. Despite the exiled opposition figure's March announcements positioning himself for a transitional role, his April calls for defections from security forces, and May appeals for U.S. support of regime change, no mass internal uprising or elite realignment has materialized amid ongoing repression and proxy conflicts. Historical patterns of authoritarian succession and the absence of verifiable domestic networks capable of installing an external candidate further anchor expectations that structural barriers will persist through the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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