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icon for As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?
Política·Médio Oriente

As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?

icon for As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?
Política·Médio Oriente

As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?

$12,344 Vol.

16 jun 2026
Polymarket

$12,344 Vol.

Polymarket

15 de junho

$501 Vol.

3%

30 de junho

$11,843 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces crossed and expanded operations north of the Litani River in late May 2026, capturing strategic sites including Beaufort Castle amid the ongoing Lebanon conflict and despite earlier truce extensions. US-brokered talks in early June produced conditional ceasefire understandings and “pilot zones” for exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control south of the river, excluding Hezbollah, while Israel signaled it would maintain positions until Hezbollah operatives withdraw and threats subside. Hezbollah has rejected partial deals and demanded simultaneous full Israeli withdrawal. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over implementation timelines, continued cross-border exchanges, and whether diplomatic or military pressure will produce verifiable Israeli pullback from territory beyond the river within any given resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$12,344
Mercado Aberto
Jun 7, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces crossed and expanded operations north of the Litani River in late May 2026, capturing strategic sites including Beaufort Castle amid the ongoing Lebanon conflict and despite earlier truce extensions. US-brokered talks in early June produced conditional ceasefire understandings and “pilot zones” for exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control south of the river, excluding Hezbollah, while Israel signaled it would maintain positions until Hezbollah operatives withdraw and threats subside. Hezbollah has rejected partial deals and demanded simultaneous full Israeli withdrawal. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over implementation timelines, continued cross-border exchanges, and whether diplomatic or military pressure will produce verifiable Israeli pullback from territory beyond the river within any given resolution window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$12,344
Mercado Aberto
Jun 7, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 13%, followed by "15 de junho" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?" has generated $12.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?" is "30 de junho" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "15 de junho" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "As forças israelenses se retiram além do rio Litani por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.