Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, reflecting a shift from early 2026 escalation to fragile de-escalation amid the ongoing war sparked by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites and leadership. Despite massive U.S. military buildup—the largest since 2003 Iraq—and Pentagon plans for potential ground operations discussed in March, actions have remained limited to airstrikes, naval blockades of Iranian ports since April 13, and Strait of Hormuz interceptions, avoiding boots-on-the-ground amid high costs and oil disruptions. Recent diplomatic momentum, including Iran's 14-point proposal on May 3 for a 30-day war end with sanctions relief and Hormuz protocols, U.S. pauses in offensive operations like Project Freedom on May 6, and ongoing Pakistan-mediated talks despite Trump's May 10 rejection of Tehran's response, signals preference for negotiations over invasion, though ceasefire strains persist with mutual strikes.