Canada’s relations with the United States have deteriorated sharply since 2025 amid tariffs, USMCA review delays, and annexation rhetoric, fueling public anger and a petition with over 170,000 signatures urging Parliament to declare Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata. The petition, slated for House of Commons consideration this fall, reflects widespread Canadian frustration but has not prompted any official government action toward expulsion. Ottawa continues diplomatic engagement, defense and trade diversification efforts, and bilateral meetings under Prime Minister Mark Carney, consistent with standard practice of preserving channels even during disputes. Trader consensus at 95.5% against expulsion by year-end rests on the absence of government intent or precedent for such a step absent total rupture. Late developments that could still shift probabilities include parliamentary votes adopting the petition, major new tariff escalations, or inflammatory ambassador statements triggering formal persona non grata proceedings.