Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador since early 2026 actions by South Africa and prior moves by Colombia. Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own envoy to Israel, alongside Iran's calls for others to follow suit, have not triggered reciprocal expulsions or widespread diplomatic breaks. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to no further expulsions by year-end because bilateral relations with most states remain intact, with limited new escalations or official announcements signaling imminent action. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the absence of fresh triggers in recent months reinforce this consensus on low near-term risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum país expulsará um embaixador de Israel até 31 de dezembro?
Algum país expulsará um embaixador de Israel até 31 de dezembro?
Sim
15% chance
$39,642 Vol.
$39,642 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
15% chance
$39,642 Vol.
$39,642 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador since early 2026 actions by South Africa and prior moves by Colombia. Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own envoy to Israel, alongside Iran's calls for others to follow suit, have not triggered reciprocal expulsions or widespread diplomatic breaks. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to no further expulsions by year-end because bilateral relations with most states remain intact, with limited new escalations or official announcements signaling imminent action. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the absence of fresh triggers in recent months reinforce this consensus on low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$39,642Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador since early 2026 actions by South Africa and prior moves by Colombia. Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own envoy to Israel, alongside Iran's calls for others to follow suit, have not triggered reciprocal expulsions or widespread diplomatic breaks. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to no further expulsions by year-end because bilateral relations with most states remain intact, with limited new escalations or official announcements signaling imminent action. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the absence of fresh triggers in recent months reinforce this consensus on low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,642Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions between Israel and several nations persist amid ongoing Middle East conflicts, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador since early 2026 actions by South Africa and prior moves by Colombia. Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own envoy to Israel, alongside Iran's calls for others to follow suit, have not triggered reciprocal expulsions or widespread diplomatic breaks. Traders assign an 85.5% probability to no further expulsions by year-end because bilateral relations with most states remain intact, with limited new escalations or official announcements signaling imminent action. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the absence of fresh triggers in recent months reinforce this consensus on low near-term risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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