Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid ongoing naval and aerial exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, with no reported ground operations, amphibious landings, or coalition advances targeting the island itself. US Central Command strikes have focused on Iranian missile sites, radar, drone facilities, and mine-laying assets on nearby islands such as Larak, while Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on shipping and regional bases, alongside diplomatic efforts to secure recognition of its maritime authority. Trader consensus prices the probability of any near-term shift in island control at low single digits across resolution windows through October 2026, reflecting emphasis on interdiction, sanctions zones, and traffic management rather than territorial seizure. Structural barriers include Iran's layered defenses across its seven islands and the absence of any announced plans for direct occupation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Ilha Ormuz não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A Ilha Ormuz não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$71,135 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
3%
$71,135 Vol.
30 de setembro
$858 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid ongoing naval and aerial exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, with no reported ground operations, amphibious landings, or coalition advances targeting the island itself. US Central Command strikes have focused on Iranian missile sites, radar, drone facilities, and mine-laying assets on nearby islands such as Larak, while Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on shipping and regional bases, alongside diplomatic efforts to secure recognition of its maritime authority. Trader consensus prices the probability of any near-term shift in island control at low single digits across resolution windows through October 2026, reflecting emphasis on interdiction, sanctions zones, and traffic management rather than territorial seizure. Structural barriers include Iran's layered defenses across its seven islands and the absence of any announced plans for direct occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$71,135Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid ongoing naval and aerial exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, with no reported ground operations, amphibious landings, or coalition advances targeting the island itself. US Central Command strikes have focused on Iranian missile sites, radar, drone facilities, and mine-laying assets on nearby islands such as Larak, while Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on shipping and regional bases, alongside diplomatic efforts to secure recognition of its maritime authority. Trader consensus prices the probability of any near-term shift in island control at low single digits across resolution windows through October 2026, reflecting emphasis on interdiction, sanctions zones, and traffic management rather than territorial seizure. Structural barriers include Iran's layered defenses across its seven islands and the absence of any announced plans for direct occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,135Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid ongoing naval and aerial exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, with no reported ground operations, amphibious landings, or coalition advances targeting the island itself. US Central Command strikes have focused on Iranian missile sites, radar, drone facilities, and mine-laying assets on nearby islands such as Larak, while Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on shipping and regional bases, alongside diplomatic efforts to secure recognition of its maritime authority. Trader consensus prices the probability of any near-term shift in island control at low single digits across resolution windows through October 2026, reflecting emphasis on interdiction, sanctions zones, and traffic management rather than territorial seizure. Structural barriers include Iran's layered defenses across its seven islands and the absence of any announced plans for direct occupation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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