**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in early September 2026 have elevated risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.** Seizure of Mokha port on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after placed Houthi forces in direct line of sight of shipping lanes, prompting more vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or transit dark. Recent tracking from Kpler and Windward shows daily transits averaging roughly 24 vessels in both directions in the latest seven-day periods—well below pre-crisis norms—with outbound flows dropping sharply after the advances. Saudi-linked tankers have accelerated diversions, and war-risk premiums have risen. These developments anchor trader consensus on the <170 outcome for the week of September 14, as heightened threat perception continues to suppress visible and total traffic through the strait.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 14 de setembro?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 14 de setembro?
<170 73%
190-209 9%
170-189 5%
210-229 4.5%
$14,191 Vol.
$14,191 Vol.
20 set 2026
<170
68%
170-189
9%
190-209
9%
210-229
4%
230+
3%
<170 73%
190-209 9%
170-189 5%
210-229 4.5%
$14,191 Vol.
$14,191 Vol.
20 set 2026
<170
$5,868 Vol.
68%
170-189
$2,746 Vol.
9%
190-209
$2,731 Vol.
9%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
4%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in early September 2026 have elevated risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.** Seizure of Mokha port on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after placed Houthi forces in direct line of sight of shipping lanes, prompting more vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or transit dark. Recent tracking from Kpler and Windward shows daily transits averaging roughly 24 vessels in both directions in the latest seven-day periods—well below pre-crisis norms—with outbound flows dropping sharply after the advances. Saudi-linked tankers have accelerated diversions, and war-risk premiums have risen. These developments anchor trader consensus on the <170 outcome for the week of September 14, as heightened threat perception continues to suppress visible and total traffic through the strait.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,191Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in early September 2026 have elevated risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.** Seizure of Mokha port on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after placed Houthi forces in direct line of sight of shipping lanes, prompting more vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or transit dark. Recent tracking from Kpler and Windward shows daily transits averaging roughly 24 vessels in both directions in the latest seven-day periods—well below pre-crisis norms—with outbound flows dropping sharply after the advances. Saudi-linked tankers have accelerated diversions, and war-risk premiums have risen. These developments anchor trader consensus on the <170 outcome for the week of September 14, as heightened threat perception continues to suppress visible and total traffic through the strait.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,191Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast in early September 2026 have elevated risks at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.** Seizure of Mokha port on September 10 and Perim Island shortly after placed Houthi forces in direct line of sight of shipping lanes, prompting more vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope or transit dark. Recent tracking from Kpler and Windward shows daily transits averaging roughly 24 vessels in both directions in the latest seven-day periods—well below pre-crisis norms—with outbound flows dropping sharply after the advances. Saudi-linked tankers have accelerated diversions, and war-risk premiums have risen. These developments anchor trader consensus on the <170 outcome for the week of September 14, as heightened threat perception continues to suppress visible and total traffic through the strait.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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