Persistent Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader sentiment on date-specific resolution markets, with implied probabilities for near-term “Yes” outcomes elevated by repeated kinetic incidents. Multiple attacks in September, including projectiles striking tankers such as the El Gaia and a Togo-flagged vessel near Oman, have sustained risk premia in energy markets, pushing Brent crude benchmarks higher on supply disruption fears while elevating war-risk insurance costs for VLCCs and product carriers. Trader consensus reflects the pattern of IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes amid U.S. naval presence and retaliatory strikes, creating a feedback loop that deters dark transits yet keeps incident rates elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC or geopolitical de-escalation signals that could alter oil flow volumes and volatility measures like the VIX or tanker charter rates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEnvio direcionado com sucesso em Ormuz em...?
Envio direcionado com sucesso em Ormuz em...?
NOVO
18 set 2026
18 de setembro
75%
19 de setembro
60%
20 de setembro
39%
21 de setembro
48%
22 de setembro
37%
23 de setembro
35%
24 de setembro
28%
25 de setembro
28%
26 de setembro
28%
27 de setembro
27%
28 de setembro
28%
29 de setembro
56%
30 de setembro
29%
$3,367 Vol.
18 de setembro
$140 Vol.
75%
19 de setembro
$92 Vol.
60%
20 de setembro
$283 Vol.
39%
21 de setembro
$1,393 Vol.
48%
22 de setembro
$909 Vol.
37%
23 de setembro
$161 Vol.
35%
24 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
25 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
26 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
27 de setembro
$0 Vol.
27%
28 de setembro
$0 Vol.
28%
29 de setembro
$390 Vol.
56%
30 de setembro
$0 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Persistent Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader sentiment on date-specific resolution markets, with implied probabilities for near-term “Yes” outcomes elevated by repeated kinetic incidents. Multiple attacks in September, including projectiles striking tankers such as the El Gaia and a Togo-flagged vessel near Oman, have sustained risk premia in energy markets, pushing Brent crude benchmarks higher on supply disruption fears while elevating war-risk insurance costs for VLCCs and product carriers. Trader consensus reflects the pattern of IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes amid U.S. naval presence and retaliatory strikes, creating a feedback loop that deters dark transits yet keeps incident rates elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC or geopolitical de-escalation signals that could alter oil flow volumes and volatility measures like the VIX or tanker charter rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ET
Volume
$3,367Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.Persistent Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader sentiment on date-specific resolution markets, with implied probabilities for near-term “Yes” outcomes elevated by repeated kinetic incidents. Multiple attacks in September, including projectiles striking tankers such as the El Gaia and a Togo-flagged vessel near Oman, have sustained risk premia in energy markets, pushing Brent crude benchmarks higher on supply disruption fears while elevating war-risk insurance costs for VLCCs and product carriers. Trader consensus reflects the pattern of IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes amid U.S. naval presence and retaliatory strikes, creating a feedback loop that deters dark transits yet keeps incident rates elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC or geopolitical de-escalation signals that could alter oil flow volumes and volatility measures like the VIX or tanker charter rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM GST (UTC+04:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea.
No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The occurrence, location, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, location, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, location, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, location, or timing of the incident, the incident will be judged on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
Volume
$3,367Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 1:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader sentiment on date-specific resolution markets, with implied probabilities for near-term “Yes” outcomes elevated by repeated kinetic incidents. Multiple attacks in September, including projectiles striking tankers such as the El Gaia and a Togo-flagged vessel near Oman, have sustained risk premia in energy markets, pushing Brent crude benchmarks higher on supply disruption fears while elevating war-risk insurance costs for VLCCs and product carriers. Trader consensus reflects the pattern of IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes amid U.S. naval presence and retaliatory strikes, creating a feedback loop that deters dark transits yet keeps incident rates elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include potential FOMC or geopolitical de-escalation signals that could alter oil flow volumes and volatility measures like the VIX or tanker charter rates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions