Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported projectile impacts on Hengam in July 2026 and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have drawn trader attention to the island's strategic role in Iran's defensive line. Tehran has reinforced positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining administrative and military authority, with no verified shifts in primary control. Recent maritime incidents near Hengam and Qeshm in September have heightened risks to shipping but have not altered territorial administration. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any loss of Iranian control by upcoming resolution dates, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, occupations, or negotiated transfers that would meet resolution criteria. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could still influence assessments before year-end deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$208,473 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
1%
$208,473 Vol.
30 de setembro
$2,633 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported projectile impacts on Hengam in July 2026 and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have drawn trader attention to the island's strategic role in Iran's defensive line. Tehran has reinforced positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining administrative and military authority, with no verified shifts in primary control. Recent maritime incidents near Hengam and Qeshm in September have heightened risks to shipping but have not altered territorial administration. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any loss of Iranian control by upcoming resolution dates, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, occupations, or negotiated transfers that would meet resolution criteria. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could still influence assessments before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,473Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported projectile impacts on Hengam in July 2026 and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have drawn trader attention to the island's strategic role in Iran's defensive line. Tehran has reinforced positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining administrative and military authority, with no verified shifts in primary control. Recent maritime incidents near Hengam and Qeshm in September have heightened risks to shipping but have not altered territorial administration. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any loss of Iranian control by upcoming resolution dates, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, occupations, or negotiated transfers that would meet resolution criteria. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could still influence assessments before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,473Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported projectile impacts on Hengam in July 2026 and strikes on nearby Larak Island launchers in late August, have drawn trader attention to the island's strategic role in Iran's defensive line. Tehran has reinforced positions across Gulf islands with additional troops and mines while maintaining administrative and military authority, with no verified shifts in primary control. Recent maritime incidents near Hengam and Qeshm in September have heightened risks to shipping but have not altered territorial administration. Market-implied probabilities remain low for any loss of Iranian control by upcoming resolution dates, reflecting the absence of amphibious operations, occupations, or negotiated transfers that would meet resolution criteria. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the region could still influence assessments before year-end deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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