Trader consensus around a low probability of Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects the high institutional thresholds for presidential removal, including House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Republican majorities or alignments in Congress following the 2024 elections have limited momentum for such actions. No major health announcements, resignation signals, or bipartisan legislative efforts have surfaced in recent months to shift these assessments. The 2026 midterm elections could alter congressional balance but fall after the period most relevant to early removal scenarios and are not viewed as immediate catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
6% chance
$10,756,883 Vol.
$10,756,883 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
6% chance
$10,756,883 Vol.
$10,756,883 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a low probability of Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects the high institutional thresholds for presidential removal, including House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Republican majorities or alignments in Congress following the 2024 elections have limited momentum for such actions. No major health announcements, resignation signals, or bipartisan legislative efforts have surfaced in recent months to shift these assessments. The 2026 midterm elections could alter congressional balance but fall after the period most relevant to early removal scenarios and are not viewed as immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,756,883Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus around a low probability of Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects the high institutional thresholds for presidential removal, including House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Republican majorities or alignments in Congress following the 2024 elections have limited momentum for such actions. No major health announcements, resignation signals, or bipartisan legislative efforts have surfaced in recent months to shift these assessments. The 2026 midterm elections could alter congressional balance but fall after the period most relevant to early removal scenarios and are not viewed as immediate catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,756,883Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a low probability of Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects the high institutional thresholds for presidential removal, including House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Republican majorities or alignments in Congress following the 2024 elections have limited momentum for such actions. No major health announcements, resignation signals, or bipartisan legislative efforts have surfaced in recent months to shift these assessments. The 2026 midterm elections could alter congressional balance but fall after the period most relevant to early removal scenarios and are not viewed as immediate catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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