Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$9,303,240 Vol.
$9,303,240 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$9,303,240 Vol.
$9,303,240 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$9,303,240Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,303,240Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in Congress have repeatedly tabled or defeated Democratic impeachment resolutions, including multiple measures tied to executive actions on Iran in 2025-2026, preventing any path to Senate conviction. No credible developments point to resignation, successful invocation of the 25th Amendment, or other removal mechanisms before the end of 2026. Trader consensus at 89.5% on "No" reflects this institutional barrier, combined with the absence of acute health or political crises that would alter the timeline. Midterm outcomes later in 2026 remain a potential variable but have not shifted probabilities meaningfully yet.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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