Traders see a 96.5% probability that President Trump will not be removed under the 25th Amendment before 2027, reflecting sustained Cabinet loyalty, Republican congressional majorities, and the absence of documented incapacity or bipartisan support for invocation. The amendment’s high threshold—requiring the Vice President plus a majority of principal officers or congressional action—has rarely produced permanent removal, and no recent executive actions, health disclosures, or legislative developments have signaled an imminent challenge. Historical patterns show such removals depend on acute medical events or broad institutional consensus that remain absent here. Late-breaking developments capable of altering these odds include a sudden, severe health crisis confirmed by official medical reports or an unprecedented Cabinet-level revolt, though both face significant procedural and political hurdles within the current administration.