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Politics·UK

Clacton by-election Winner

icon for Clacton by-election Winner
Politics·UK

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage 95%

Giles Watling 1.1%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul <1%

Matthew Bensilum <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Nigel Farage 95%

Giles Watling 1.1%

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul <1%

Matthew Bensilum <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Nigel Farage

Nigel Farage

$1,201 Vol.

95%

icon for Giles Watling

Giles Watling

$37 Vol.

1%

icon for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul

$61 Vol.

1%

icon for Matthew Bensilum

Matthew Bensilum

$37 Vol.

1%

icon for Tony Mack

Tony Mack

$37 Vol.

1%

icon for Andrew Pemberton

Andrew Pemberton

$37 Vol.

1%

icon for Natasha Osben

Natasha Osben

$37 Vol.

1%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$1,447
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 10:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$1,447
Data de Término
30 jun 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 10:51 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Clacton by-election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nigel Farage" at 95%, followed by "Giles Watling" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Clacton by-election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Clacton by-election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Clacton by-election Winner" is "Nigel Farage" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Giles Watling" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Clacton by-election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.