Elon Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting on X drives the market's strongest consensus around 40-64 tweets for the August 17-19 window, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 15-20 posts amid ongoing commentary on politics, technology, and SpaceX or Tesla updates. Traders appear to discount major spikes, as no breaking company announcements or viral controversies have emerged in the immediate run-up to the period, keeping lower-volume outcomes like under 40 tweets as a solid secondary bet at 31% implied probability. Historical data on Musk's activity during quiet weekends supports this measured range, with upcoming catalysts limited to routine platform engagement unless a sudden news cycle intervenes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 51%
<40 32%
65-89 16%
90-114 2.5%
NOVO
$23,887 Vol.
NOVO
$23,887 Vol.
19 ago 2026
<40
32%
40-64
51%
65-89
16%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
<40 32%
65-89 16%
90-114 2.5%
NOVO
$23,887 Vol.
NOVO
$23,887 Vol.
19 ago 2026
<40
$3,099 Vol.
32%
40-64
$6,384 Vol.
51%
65-89
$1,219 Vol.
16%
90-114
$1,164 Vol.
2%
115-139
$1,664 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,924 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,833 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$1,200 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$700 Vol.
<1%
240+
$700 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting on X drives the market's strongest consensus around 40-64 tweets for the August 17-19 window, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 15-20 posts amid ongoing commentary on politics, technology, and SpaceX or Tesla updates. Traders appear to discount major spikes, as no breaking company announcements or viral controversies have emerged in the immediate run-up to the period, keeping lower-volume outcomes like under 40 tweets as a solid secondary bet at 31% implied probability. Historical data on Musk's activity during quiet weekends supports this measured range, with upcoming catalysts limited to routine platform engagement unless a sudden news cycle intervenes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$23,887Data de Término
19 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting on X drives the market's strongest consensus around 40-64 tweets for the August 17-19 window, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 15-20 posts amid ongoing commentary on politics, technology, and SpaceX or Tesla updates. Traders appear to discount major spikes, as no breaking company announcements or viral controversies have emerged in the immediate run-up to the period, keeping lower-volume outcomes like under 40 tweets as a solid secondary bet at 31% implied probability. Historical data on Musk's activity during quiet weekends supports this measured range, with upcoming catalysts limited to routine platform engagement unless a sudden news cycle intervenes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$23,887Data de Término
19 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting on X drives the market's strongest consensus around 40-64 tweets for the August 17-19 window, reflecting his typical daily output of roughly 15-20 posts amid ongoing commentary on politics, technology, and SpaceX or Tesla updates. Traders appear to discount major spikes, as no breaking company announcements or viral controversies have emerged in the immediate run-up to the period, keeping lower-volume outcomes like under 40 tweets as a solid secondary bet at 31% implied probability. Historical data on Musk's activity during quiet weekends supports this measured range, with upcoming catalysts limited to routine platform engagement unless a sudden news cycle intervenes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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