**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and followed with a $145 million second weekend, one of the largest ever, fueled by massive Marvel hype, Tom Holland’s star power, and strong critical buzz. These outsized early numbers set up a steep but predictable third-weekend decline of 50-60%, consistent with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale. Industry tracking from Deadline and Boxoffice Pro places the Aug. 14–16 frame firmly in the $57–77 million range, with most forecasts clustering $60–72 million. Trader consensus at 94.7% for under $72 million reflects this data-driven expectation of a normal hold rather than another blockbuster frame. An upset above $72 million would require an unusually strong word-of-mouth multiplier or softer-than-expected competition, while the slim odds for $79 million+ or higher would demand near-record retention that precedent makes highly improbable. The market has priced in the film’s exceptional start while correctly anticipating the typical post-opening drop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3º fim de semana de bilheteria
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3º fim de semana de bilheteria
<72m 94.7%
72-79 milhões 5.9%
93 milhões+ <1%
79-86 milhões <1%
$41,928 Vol.
$41,928 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<72m
95%
72-79 milhões
6%
79-86 milhões
<1%
86-93 milhões
<1%
93 milhões+
<1%
<72m 94.7%
72-79 milhões 5.9%
93 milhões+ <1%
79-86 milhões <1%
$41,928 Vol.
$41,928 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<72m
$25,821 Vol.
95%
72-79 milhões
$8,061 Vol.
6%
79-86 milhões
$5,055 Vol.
<1%
86-93 milhões
$1,577 Vol.
<1%
93 milhões+
$1,415 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and followed with a $145 million second weekend, one of the largest ever, fueled by massive Marvel hype, Tom Holland’s star power, and strong critical buzz. These outsized early numbers set up a steep but predictable third-weekend decline of 50-60%, consistent with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale. Industry tracking from Deadline and Boxoffice Pro places the Aug. 14–16 frame firmly in the $57–77 million range, with most forecasts clustering $60–72 million.
Trader consensus at 94.7% for under $72 million reflects this data-driven expectation of a normal hold rather than another blockbuster frame. An upset above $72 million would require an unusually strong word-of-mouth multiplier or softer-than-expected competition, while the slim odds for $79 million+ or higher would demand near-record retention that precedent makes highly improbable. The market has priced in the film’s exceptional start while correctly anticipating the typical post-opening drop.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$41,928Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and followed with a $145 million second weekend, one of the largest ever, fueled by massive Marvel hype, Tom Holland’s star power, and strong critical buzz. These outsized early numbers set up a steep but predictable third-weekend decline of 50-60%, consistent with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale. Industry tracking from Deadline and Boxoffice Pro places the Aug. 14–16 frame firmly in the $57–77 million range, with most forecasts clustering $60–72 million.
Trader consensus at 94.7% for under $72 million reflects this data-driven expectation of a normal hold rather than another blockbuster frame. An upset above $72 million would require an unusually strong word-of-mouth multiplier or softer-than-expected competition, while the slim odds for $79 million+ or higher would demand near-record retention that precedent makes highly improbable. The market has priced in the film’s exceptional start while correctly anticipating the typical post-opening drop.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$41,928Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestically in late July 2026 and followed with a $145 million second weekend, one of the largest ever, fueled by massive Marvel hype, Tom Holland’s star power, and strong critical buzz. These outsized early numbers set up a steep but predictable third-weekend decline of 50-60%, consistent with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale. Industry tracking from Deadline and Boxoffice Pro places the Aug. 14–16 frame firmly in the $57–77 million range, with most forecasts clustering $60–72 million. Trader consensus at 94.7% for under $72 million reflects this data-driven expectation of a normal hold rather than another blockbuster frame. An upset above $72 million would require an unusually strong word-of-mouth multiplier or softer-than-expected competition, while the slim odds for $79 million+ or higher would demand near-record retention that precedent makes highly improbable. The market has priced in the film’s exceptional start while correctly anticipating the typical post-opening drop.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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