The tight statistical tie in the latest August 2026 internal poll between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin—showing 40% to 38% with roughly 20% undecided—has driven trader positioning in the FL-25 Democratic primary margin market ahead of the August 18 vote. Earlier surveys had given Moskowitz double-digit leads that narrowed sharply amid Larkin's mobilization of Democratic primary voters and outside spending on both sides. The new coastal district's diverse electorate and even partisan split amplify uncertainty, with early voting patterns and mobilization of remaining undecideds likely to shape the final margin. High "Other" pricing reflects expectations that the outcome could fall outside listed buckets given the race's competitiveness and short timeline to primary day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMoskowitz 25%+ 39%
Moskowitz 20–25% 20%
Moskowitz 10–15% 16%
Moskowitz 15–20% 14%
NOVO
NOVO
18 ago 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
39%
Moskowitz 20–25%
20%
Moskowitz 15–20%
14%
Moskowitz 10–15%
16%
Moskowitz 5–10%
1%
Moskowitz <5%
9%
Larkin <5%
3%
Larkin 5–10%
3%
Larkin 10–15%
3%
Larkin 15–20%
3%
Larkin 20–25%
3%
Larkin 25%+
2%
Moskowitz 25%+ 39%
Moskowitz 20–25% 20%
Moskowitz 10–15% 16%
Moskowitz 15–20% 14%
NOVO
NOVO
18 ago 2026
Moskowitz 25%+
$5,109 Vol.
39%
Moskowitz 20–25%
$541 Vol.
20%
Moskowitz 15–20%
$234 Vol.
14%
Moskowitz 10–15%
$159 Vol.
16%
Moskowitz 5–10%
$31 Vol.
1%
Moskowitz <5%
$47 Vol.
9%
Larkin <5%
$78 Vol.
3%
Larkin 5–10%
$78 Vol.
3%
Larkin 10–15%
$138 Vol.
3%
Larkin 15–20%
$100 Vol.
3%
Larkin 20–25%
$78 Vol.
3%
Larkin 25%+
$166 Vol.
2%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight statistical tie in the latest August 2026 internal poll between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin—showing 40% to 38% with roughly 20% undecided—has driven trader positioning in the FL-25 Democratic primary margin market ahead of the August 18 vote. Earlier surveys had given Moskowitz double-digit leads that narrowed sharply amid Larkin's mobilization of Democratic primary voters and outside spending on both sides. The new coastal district's diverse electorate and even partisan split amplify uncertainty, with early voting patterns and mobilization of remaining undecideds likely to shape the final margin. High "Other" pricing reflects expectations that the outcome could fall outside listed buckets given the race's competitiveness and short timeline to primary day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$6,760Data de Término
18 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight statistical tie in the latest August 2026 internal poll between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin—showing 40% to 38% with roughly 20% undecided—has driven trader positioning in the FL-25 Democratic primary margin market ahead of the August 18 vote. Earlier surveys had given Moskowitz double-digit leads that narrowed sharply amid Larkin's mobilization of Democratic primary voters and outside spending on both sides. The new coastal district's diverse electorate and even partisan split amplify uncertainty, with early voting patterns and mobilization of remaining undecideds likely to shape the final margin. High "Other" pricing reflects expectations that the outcome could fall outside listed buckets given the race's competitiveness and short timeline to primary day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$6,760Data de Término
18 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight statistical tie in the latest August 2026 internal poll between incumbent Jared Moskowitz and progressive challenger Oliver Larkin—showing 40% to 38% with roughly 20% undecided—has driven trader positioning in the FL-25 Democratic primary margin market ahead of the August 18 vote. Earlier surveys had given Moskowitz double-digit leads that narrowed sharply amid Larkin's mobilization of Democratic primary voters and outside spending on both sides. The new coastal district's diverse electorate and even partisan split amplify uncertainty, with early voting patterns and mobilization of remaining undecideds likely to shape the final margin. High "Other" pricing reflects expectations that the outcome could fall outside listed buckets given the race's competitiveness and short timeline to primary day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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