California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of early 2026, appears on the November 3 ballot and would direct most revenue to state healthcare programs. Recent polling shows softening support, with a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey from early August placing likely-voter backing at 48% yes versus 41% no. Governor Gavin Newsom has opposed the measure, and competing initiatives such as Proposition 42 seek to prohibit new personal-property taxes and could nullify it even if both pass. Legal analyses highlight potential constitutional challenges, while opponents cite risks of reduced future income-tax collections and capital flight. These factors, alongside the novelty of a state-level wealth tax and organized resistance, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 72.5% probability of failure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
28% chance
$3,665,827 Vol.
$3,665,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Sim
28% chance
$3,665,827 Vol.
$3,665,827 Vol.
3 nov 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of early 2026, appears on the November 3 ballot and would direct most revenue to state healthcare programs. Recent polling shows softening support, with a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey from early August placing likely-voter backing at 48% yes versus 41% no. Governor Gavin Newsom has opposed the measure, and competing initiatives such as Proposition 42 seek to prohibit new personal-property taxes and could nullify it even if both pass. Legal analyses highlight potential constitutional challenges, while opponents cite risks of reduced future income-tax collections and capital flight. These factors, alongside the novelty of a state-level wealth tax and organized resistance, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 72.5% probability of failure.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,665,827Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of early 2026, appears on the November 3 ballot and would direct most revenue to state healthcare programs. Recent polling shows softening support, with a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey from early August placing likely-voter backing at 48% yes versus 41% no. Governor Gavin Newsom has opposed the measure, and competing initiatives such as Proposition 42 seek to prohibit new personal-property taxes and could nullify it even if both pass. Legal analyses highlight potential constitutional challenges, while opponents cite risks of reduced future income-tax collections and capital flight. These factors, alongside the novelty of a state-level wealth tax and organized resistance, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 72.5% probability of failure.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,665,827Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of early 2026, appears on the November 3 ballot and would direct most revenue to state healthcare programs. Recent polling shows softening support, with a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey from early August placing likely-voter backing at 48% yes versus 41% no. Governor Gavin Newsom has opposed the measure, and competing initiatives such as Proposition 42 seek to prohibit new personal-property taxes and could nullify it even if both pass. Legal analyses highlight potential constitutional challenges, while opponents cite risks of reduced future income-tax collections and capital flight. These factors, alongside the novelty of a state-level wealth tax and organized resistance, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 72.5% probability of failure.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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