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Eleições·Primária Republicana

FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana
Eleições·Primária Republicana

FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana

Randy Fine 86%

Dan Bilzerian 8.0%

Aaron Baker 2.6%

Alexandra Van Cleef <1%

Polymarket

$142,267 Vol.

Randy Fine 86%

Dan Bilzerian 8.0%

Aaron Baker 2.6%

Alexandra Van Cleef <1%

Polymarket

$142,267 Vol.

Randy Fine

$14,672 Vol.

86%

Dan Bilzerian

$47,108 Vol.

8%

Aaron Baker

$14,892 Vol.

3%

Alexandra Van Cleef

$27,207 Vol.

<1%

Joshua Vasquez

$9,109 Vol.

<1%

Charles Gambaro

$10,760 Vol.

<1%

Ernest Audino

$18,519 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Fine dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability to win the FL-06 Republican primary on August 18, driven by his strong incumbency advantage after victory in the 2025 special election, superior fundraising reported mid-April, and membership in the House Freedom Caucus appealing to the district's heavily Republican base that backed Trump by 30 points. Challenger Dan Bilzerian's April filing as a social media personality has garnered 6.5% odds amid controversy over his non-local residency and past persona, potentially splitting anti-Fine votes with Aaron Baker at 6.9%, though both face hurdles in the older median-age district. No public polls exist, but Fine's lead reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of primary dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$142,267
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Fine dominates trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability to win the FL-06 Republican primary on August 18, driven by his strong incumbency advantage after victory in the 2025 special election, superior fundraising reported mid-April, and membership in the House Freedom Caucus appealing to the district's heavily Republican base that backed Trump by 30 points. Challenger Dan Bilzerian's April filing as a social media personality has garnered 6.5% odds amid controversy over his non-local residency and past persona, potentially splitting anti-Fine votes with Aaron Baker at 6.9%, though both face hurdles in the older median-age district. No public polls exist, but Fine's lead reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of primary dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$142,267
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Randy Fine" at 86%, followed by "Dan Bilzerian" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $142.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Randy Fine" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bilzerian" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.