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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

icon for Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19

Catalina Lauf 41%

Jim Schwartzel 40.2%

Jim Oberweis 11.0%

Madison Cawthorn 10.6%

Polymarket

$22,773 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 41%

Jim Schwartzel 40.2%

Jim Oberweis 11.0%

Madison Cawthorn 10.6%

Polymarket

$22,773 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$16,733 Vol.

41%

Jim Schwartzel

$604 Vol.

40%

Jim Oberweis

$2,602 Vol.

11%

Madison Cawthorn

$1,312 Vol.

11%

Spencer Roach

$656 Vol.

8%

Bob Rommel

$865 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows Catalina Lauf edging Jim Schwartzel at 41% to 39.1%, reflecting an open seat vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds amid his gubernatorial bid and a crowded field now thinning after early withdrawals like Spencer Roach. Lauf's momentum stems from strong Q1 2026 fundraising ($541,000 raised), Trump administration experience, and endorsements from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Veterans for America First, appealing to national conservative voters. Schwartzel counters with superior cash-on-hand ($1.28 million entering 2026) and deep Southwest Florida roots as a local broadcaster, offsetting a minor radio station controversy. Absent public polling, the race stays tight; Q2 finance filings, candidate forums, and party endorsements before the August 18 primary could create separation among trailing contenders like Jim Oberweis and Madison Cawthorn.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,773
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary, trader consensus shows Catalina Lauf edging Jim Schwartzel at 41% to 39.1%, reflecting an open seat vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds amid his gubernatorial bid and a crowded field now thinning after early withdrawals like Spencer Roach. Lauf's momentum stems from strong Q1 2026 fundraising ($541,000 raised), Trump administration experience, and endorsements from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Veterans for America First, appealing to national conservative voters. Schwartzel counters with superior cash-on-hand ($1.28 million entering 2026) and deep Southwest Florida roots as a local broadcaster, offsetting a minor radio station controversy. Absent public polling, the race stays tight; Q2 finance filings, candidate forums, and party endorsements before the August 18 primary could create separation among trailing contenders like Jim Oberweis and Madison Cawthorn.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,773
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 41%, followed by "Jim Schwartzel" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" has generated $22.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" is "Catalina Lauf" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária republicana da FL-19" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.