Probabilidades e previsões das eleições intercalares 2026

$7.2K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

96% de probabilidade de não

-1.5%

$6.2K Vol

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

59% de probabilidade de não

-29.0%

$3.2K Vol

Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?

82% de probabilidade de sim

+24.0%

$1.9K Vol

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

69% de probabilidade de não

-0.5%

$1.5K Vol

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

91% de probabilidade de sim

+17.5%

$1.5K Vol

Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

55% de probabilidade de sim

+0.0%

NOVO

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

98% de probabilidade de sim

+3.3%

NOVO

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

53% de probabilidade de sim

-1.5%

NOVO

Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

67% de probabilidade de sim

+5.0%

$4M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

69% de probabilidade de não

+1.0%

$7.2K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

96% de probabilidade de não

-1.5%

$6.2K Vol

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

59% de probabilidade de não

-29.0%

Maiores corridas

mercados mais decisivos

AK Governor

57% Democrata

+7%

$756K Vol

TX Senate

52% Democrata

ME Senate

69% Democrata

$393K Vol

AK Senate

51% Democrata

-1%

$325K Vol

MI Senate

58% Democrata

+1%

AK Governor

57% Democrata

+7%

$756K Vol

TX Senate

52% Democrata

ME Senate

69% Democrata

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Todas as corridas

583 mercados

Corrida

Estado

Fav

Nível

A mostrar 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intercalares 2026

Probabilidades das eleições intercalares 2026 — Probabilidades ao vivo do mercado de previsões
Mercado	Principais candidatos e nomeados	Probabilidades ao vivo
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	93%
	Steve Hilton	7%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Troy Jackson (D)	70%
	Susan Collins (R)	31%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	56%
	Bernadette Wilson	30%
	Treg Taylor	6%
	David Bronson	3%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	3%
	Click Bishop	2%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Bill Walker	1%
Texas Senate Election Winner	James Talarico (D)	52%
	Ken Paxton (R)	48%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	51%
	Dan Sullivan	49%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	60%
	Mike Rogers (R)	42%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	56%
	Josh Turek (D)	44%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	David Crowley (D)	78%
	Tom Tiffany (R)	23%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Amy Acton (D)	54%
	Vivek Ramaswamy (R)	46%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	92%
	Independent	6%
New York Governor Election Winner	Democrat	94%
	Republican	6%
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner	Ben Butler	31%
	Thomas Chalifoux	27%
	Jorge Martinez	11%
	Dan Green	10%
	Justin Story	1%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Amy Klobuchar (D)	94%
	Lisa Demuth (R)	5%
Iowa Governor Election Winner	Rob Sand (D)	72%
	Zach Lahn (R)	28%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Catalina Lauf	47%
	Jim Schwartzel	40%
	Jim Oberweis	13%
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner	Lois Frankel	96%
	Victoria Doyle	3%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Greg Abbott (R)	86%
	Gina Hinojosa (D)	14%
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner	Michael Carbonara	45%
	David Burck	35%
	Belinda Keiser	16%
	Casey Askar	6%
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner	Austin Rogers	64%
	Keith Gross	25%
	Evan Power	4%
	Jim Norton	2%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	89%
	Oliver Larkin	11%
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner	James Martin	71%
	Bernard Taylor	31%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Peggy Flanagan (D)	93%
	Michele Tafoya (R)	8%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	14%
Vermont Governor Election Winner	Republican	86%
	Democrat	9%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	88%
	Elijah Manley	13%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republican	92%
	Democrat	8%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	Bell 16%+	100%
	Bell 8–12%	1%
FL-07 Republican Primary Winner	Cory Mills	50%
	Ryan Elijah	49%
FL-25 Republican Primary Winner	Scott Singer	77%
	Dan Franzese	13%
	George Moraitis	12%
	Joseph Kaufman	1%
Maryland Governor Election Winner	Democrat	96%
	Republican	4%
FL-14 Republican Primary Winner	Kevin Steele	62%
	Mike Beltran	34%
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner	Steve Friess	53%
	Chuck Gray	33%
	Kevin Christensen	10%
	David Giralt	3%
	Reid Rasner	3%
	Bo Biteman	2%
	John Romero-Martinez	2%
	Frank Chapman	1%
FL-11 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Strada	67%
	Carey Baker	26%
	Tim Wilkins	9%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Yen Bailey	28%
	Amanda Green	27%
	Nic Zateslo	25%
	Brice Barnes	9%
Virginia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	94%
	Republican	6%
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Republican	80%
	Democrat	19%
Kansas Governor Election Winner	Republican	63%
	Democrat	37%
FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner	LaShonda "L.J." Holloway	78%
	Michael Kirwan	21%
	Brit Robinson	3%
FL-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Eric Yonce	69%
	Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera	31%
	Robert Cooper	1%
	Steve Morgan	1%
FL-05 Republican Primary Winner	John Rutherford	96%
	Mark Kaye	3%
FL-27 Democratic Primary Winner	Eliott Rodriguez	89%
	Robin Peguero	11%
MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Jake Auchincloss	93%
	Jason Poulos	7%
Kansas Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-3%	22%
	Democrat 0-3%	20%
	Republican 3-6%	14%
	Democrat 3-6%	12%
	Republican 18%+	9%
	Republican 12-15%	8%
	Republican 6-9%	6%
	Democrat 6%+	6%
	Republican 9-12%	5%
	Republican 15-18%	3%
Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 45-50%	30%
	Republican 35-40%	17%
	Republican 25-30%	13%
	Republican 15-20%	10%
	Republican 30-35%	9%
	Republican 40-45%	8%
	Republican 20-25%	8%
	Republican 50%+	6%
	Republican 10-15%	6%
	Republican 0-10%	5%
	Democrat Wins	3%
Arizona Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 9-12%	23%
	Democrat 6-9%	16%
	Democrat 3-6%	14%
	Democrat 12-15%	14%
	Republican 0-3%	11%
	Democrat 15-18%	11%
	Democrat 0-3%	10%
	Democrat 18%+	9%
	Republican 3-6%	4%
	Republican 6%+	3%
Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 35-40%	21%
	Democrat 30-35%	17%
	Democrat 40-45%	15%
	Democrat 25-30%	14%
	Democrat 45%+	13%
	Democrat 20-25%	12%
	Democrat 10-15%	7%
	Democrat 15-20%	7%
	Republican Wins	6%
	Democrat 0-10%	5%
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 6-9%	20%
	Republican 3-6%	17%
	Republican 0-3%	15%
	Democrat 0-3%	11%
	Republican 9-12%	10%
	Republican 21%+	9%
	Republican 12-15%	9%
	Republican 18-21%	7%
	Republican 15-18%	7%
	Democrat 3%+	4%
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)	Democrat 6-9%	14%
	Republican 3-6%	13%
	Democrat 0-3%	12%
	Democrat 9-12%	12%
	Republican 6-9%	11%
	Republican 0-3%	11%
	Democrat 3-6%	9%
	Democrat 12%+	9%
	Republican 12%+	5%
	Republican 9-12%	4%
New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 3-6%	20%
	Democrat 15-18%	19%
	Democrat 0-3%	17%
	Democrat 12-15%	14%
	Democrat 6-9%	12%
	Democrat 9-12%	12%
	Republican 0-3%	11%
	Republican 6%+	10%
	Republican 3-6%	7%
	Democrat 18%+	7%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	32%

93%

Steve Hilton

Maine Senate Election Winner Troy Jackson (D)

70%

Susan Collins (R)

31%

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Click Bishop

Nancy Dahlstrom

Bill Walker

Texas Senate Election Winner James Talarico (D)

52%

Ken Paxton (R)

48%

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

51%

Dan Sullivan

49%

Michigan Senate Election Winner Abdul El-Sayed (D)

60%

Mike Rogers (R)

42%

Iowa Senate Election Winner Ashley Hinson (R)

56%

Josh Turek (D)

44%

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner David Crowley (D)

78%

Tom Tiffany (R)

23%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Amy Acton (D)

54%

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

46%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

92%

Independent

New York Governor Election Winner Democrat

94%

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner Ben Butler

Minnesota Governor Election Winner Amy Klobuchar (D)

94%

Lisa Demuth (R)

Iowa Governor Election Winner Rob Sand (D)

72%

Zach Lahn (R)

28%

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner Catalina Lauf

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner Lois Frankel

96%

Victoria Doyle

Texas Governor Election Winner Greg Abbott (R)

86%

Gina Hinojosa (D)

14%

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner Michael Carbonara

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner Austin Rogers

FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner Jared Moskowitz

89%

Oliver Larkin

11%

FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner James Martin

71%

Bernard Taylor

31%

Minnesota Senate Election Winner Peggy Flanagan (D)

93%

Michele Tafoya (R)

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Democrat

87%

Vermont Governor Election Winner Republican

14%

86%

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

88%

Elijah Manley

13%

Mississippi Senate Election Winner Republican

92%

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory Bell 16%+

100%

Bell 8–12%

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner Cory Mills

50%

Ryan Elijah

49%

FL-25 Republican Primary Winner Scott Singer

Maryland Governor Election Winner Democrat

96%

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner Kevin Steele

62%

Mike Beltran

34%

WY-AL Republican Primary Winner Steve Friess

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner Joe Strada

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Yen Bailey

Virginia Senate Election Winner Democrat

94%

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Republican

80%

Kansas Governor Election Winner Republican

19%

63%