Montana’s solidly Republican electorate, with a long-standing partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 78.5 percent. Incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal just before the filing deadline cleared the primary field for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured immediate backing from President Trump and key state leaders. This move has consolidated GOP resources ahead of the June 2 primaries, while independent Seth Bodnar’s campaign, backed by crossover endorsements and solid early fundraising, sustains a narrower 16.6 percent chance by potentially splitting moderate support. Democrats’ fragmented primary field leaves their candidate with minimal viability at 3.8 percent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRepublicano 79%
Independente 16.5%
Democrata 3.8%
$72,511 Vol.
$72,511 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
79%
Independente
17%
Democrata
4%
Republicano 79%
Independente 16.5%
Democrata 3.8%
$72,511 Vol.
$72,511 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$37,447 Vol.
79%
Independente
$1,510 Vol.
17%
Democrata
$33,554 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana’s solidly Republican electorate, with a long-standing partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 78.5 percent. Incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal just before the filing deadline cleared the primary field for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured immediate backing from President Trump and key state leaders. This move has consolidated GOP resources ahead of the June 2 primaries, while independent Seth Bodnar’s campaign, backed by crossover endorsements and solid early fundraising, sustains a narrower 16.6 percent chance by potentially splitting moderate support. Democrats’ fragmented primary field leaves their candidate with minimal viability at 3.8 percent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,511Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana’s solidly Republican electorate, with a long-standing partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 78.5 percent. Incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal just before the filing deadline cleared the primary field for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured immediate backing from President Trump and key state leaders. This move has consolidated GOP resources ahead of the June 2 primaries, while independent Seth Bodnar’s campaign, backed by crossover endorsements and solid early fundraising, sustains a narrower 16.6 percent chance by potentially splitting moderate support. Democrats’ fragmented primary field leaves their candidate with minimal viability at 3.8 percent.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$72,511Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s solidly Republican electorate, with a long-standing partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 78.5 percent. Incumbent Steve Daines’ March 2026 withdrawal just before the filing deadline cleared the primary field for his endorsed successor, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who secured immediate backing from President Trump and key state leaders. This move has consolidated GOP resources ahead of the June 2 primaries, while independent Seth Bodnar’s campaign, backed by crossover endorsements and solid early fundraising, sustains a narrower 16.6 percent chance by potentially splitting moderate support. Democrats’ fragmented primary field leaves their candidate with minimal viability at 3.8 percent.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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