Skip to main content
icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro

icon for Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro
Política·Brasil

Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro

Flavio Bolsonaro 66%

Lula 31%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Flavio Bolsonaro 66%

Lula 31%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,361 Vol.

66%

icon for Lula

Lula

$1,842 Vol.

31%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$453 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$373 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$635 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$547 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$567 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$373 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$375 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$453 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$431 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$433 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and sitting senator from Rio de Janeiro has anchored trader consensus on his first-round victory in the state, reinforced by his recent campaign launch on Copacabana Beach and his father’s endorsement. National polling shows a tighter Lula-Flávio contest overall, yet Rio’s electoral dynamics—stronger right-wing support in the state legislature and among voters prioritizing security—favor the local candidate. Lula’s re-election bid, centered on incumbency and crime-focused messaging after recent police operations, registers lower odds locally despite leading some national surveys. Other listed contenders remain marginal in Rio-specific scenarios, with limited polling visibility or organizational presence in the state. The October 4 first-round date and potential runoff mechanics keep attention on these two frontrunners while underscoring regional variance in voter priorities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,310
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and sitting senator from Rio de Janeiro has anchored trader consensus on his first-round victory in the state, reinforced by his recent campaign launch on Copacabana Beach and his father’s endorsement. National polling shows a tighter Lula-Flávio contest overall, yet Rio’s electoral dynamics—stronger right-wing support in the state legislature and among voters prioritizing security—favor the local candidate. Lula’s re-election bid, centered on incumbency and crime-focused messaging after recent police operations, registers lower odds locally despite leading some national surveys. Other listed contenders remain marginal in Rio-specific scenarios, with limited polling visibility or organizational presence in the state. The October 4 first-round date and potential runoff mechanics keep attention on these two frontrunners while underscoring regional variance in voter priorities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,310
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil em São Paulo?

88%
Sim
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos no Distrito Federal na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil?

Flavio Bolsonaro receberá a maioria dos votos no Distrito Federal na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil?

63%
Sim
icon for Lula ganhará mais votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil no Pará?

Lula ganhará mais votos na próxima eleição presidencial do Brasil no Pará?

88%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 66%, followed by "Lula" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Primeiro turno das eleições presidenciais no Brasil: 1º lugar no Rio de Janeiro" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.