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icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará

icon for Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará
Política·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará

Lula 96.8%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket

$14,021 Vol.

Lula 96.8%

Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Samara <1%

Polymarket

$14,021 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$7,740 Vol.

97%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$817 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$702 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$517 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$457 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$487 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$497 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$437 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$442 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$517 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold with consistent PT support rooted in social programs and voter demographics. Recent polls, including Ipsos-Ipec and Quaest surveys from July 2026, show him at 54-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 22-26%, with all other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and minor contenders—remaining at 3% or below. This aligns with 2022 results, where Lula carried every municipality in the state with nearly 70% in the second round. Trader consensus at 96.8% for Lula incorporates this polling stability and regional voting patterns, though late campaign shifts, turnout variations, or unexpected national developments could narrow the gap before October voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,021
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold with consistent PT support rooted in social programs and voter demographics. Recent polls, including Ipsos-Ipec and Quaest surveys from July 2026, show him at 54-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 22-26%, with all other candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and minor contenders—remaining at 3% or below. This aligns with 2022 results, where Lula carried every municipality in the state with nearly 70% in the second round. Trader consensus at 96.8% for Lula incorporates this polling stability and regional voting patterns, though late campaign shifts, turnout variations, or unexpected national developments could narrow the gap before October voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,021
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 97%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" has generated $14K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" is "Lula" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil em primeiro turno: 1º lugar no Ceará" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.