The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial contest remains closely balanced between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto because both candidates carry significant structural advantages into the October election. Rodrigues benefits from the established resources and visibility of the sitting governor, while Neto draws strong support in urban centers and among voters seeking alternation after the pair’s narrow 2022 runoff. Recent surveys from Quaest and other firms show first-round intentions in a statistical tie within the margin of error, underscoring how campaign momentum, coalition alignments, and turnout in key regions could still shift the outcome. Traders assign a modest edge to the incumbent, reflecting historical patterns of reelection success for sitting governors, yet the narrow spread leaves room for late developments such as endorsements or economic indicators to widen the gap before voting day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial contest remains closely balanced between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto because both candidates carry significant structural advantages into the October election. Rodrigues benefits from the established resources and visibility of the sitting governor, while Neto draws strong support in urban centers and among voters seeking alternation after the pair’s narrow 2022 runoff. Recent surveys from Quaest and other firms show first-round intentions in a statistical tie within the margin of error, underscoring how campaign momentum, coalition alignments, and turnout in key regions could still shift the outcome. Traders assign a modest edge to the incumbent, reflecting historical patterns of reelection success for sitting governors, yet the narrow spread leaves room for late developments such as endorsements or economic indicators to widen the gap before voting day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$13,694Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial contest remains closely balanced between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto because both candidates carry significant structural advantages into the October election. Rodrigues benefits from the established resources and visibility of the sitting governor, while Neto draws strong support in urban centers and among voters seeking alternation after the pair’s narrow 2022 runoff. Recent surveys from Quaest and other firms show first-round intentions in a statistical tie within the margin of error, underscoring how campaign momentum, coalition alignments, and turnout in key regions could still shift the outcome. Traders assign a modest edge to the incumbent, reflecting historical patterns of reelection success for sitting governors, yet the narrow spread leaves room for late developments such as endorsements or economic indicators to widen the gap before voting day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,694Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Bahia gubernatorial contest remains closely balanced between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues and challenger ACM Neto because both candidates carry significant structural advantages into the October election. Rodrigues benefits from the established resources and visibility of the sitting governor, while Neto draws strong support in urban centers and among voters seeking alternation after the pair’s narrow 2022 runoff. Recent surveys from Quaest and other firms show first-round intentions in a statistical tie within the margin of error, underscoring how campaign momentum, coalition alignments, and turnout in key regions could still shift the outcome. Traders assign a modest edge to the incumbent, reflecting historical patterns of reelection success for sitting governors, yet the narrow spread leaves room for late developments such as endorsements or economic indicators to widen the gap before voting day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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