The Bahia gubernatorial contest remains a near-dead heat because incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues has stabilized his approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s through visible gains in education and infrastructure, offsetting earlier erosion while ACM Neto consolidates urban and right-leaning support after his party’s 2025 national break with the Lula administration. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show the two candidates within or at the edge of the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with the August 9 debate producing no decisive shift. Neto’s alignment with broader opposition forces and strength in Salvador contrast with Rodrigues’s recovery among municipal leaders who previously backed the challenger, sustaining trader consensus that either candidate could prevail depending on turnout and late-cycle momentum. The October 4 first round, and possible runoff three weeks later, will determine the winner.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJerônimo Rodrigues 49%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
49%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 49%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,629 Vol.
49%
ACM Neto
$35,900 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial contest remains a near-dead heat because incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues has stabilized his approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s through visible gains in education and infrastructure, offsetting earlier erosion while ACM Neto consolidates urban and right-leaning support after his party’s 2025 national break with the Lula administration. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show the two candidates within or at the edge of the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with the August 9 debate producing no decisive shift. Neto’s alignment with broader opposition forces and strength in Salvador contrast with Rodrigues’s recovery among municipal leaders who previously backed the challenger, sustaining trader consensus that either candidate could prevail depending on turnout and late-cycle momentum. The October 4 first round, and possible runoff three weeks later, will determine the winner.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,708Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial contest remains a near-dead heat because incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues has stabilized his approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s through visible gains in education and infrastructure, offsetting earlier erosion while ACM Neto consolidates urban and right-leaning support after his party’s 2025 national break with the Lula administration. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show the two candidates within or at the edge of the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with the August 9 debate producing no decisive shift. Neto’s alignment with broader opposition forces and strength in Salvador contrast with Rodrigues’s recovery among municipal leaders who previously backed the challenger, sustaining trader consensus that either candidate could prevail depending on turnout and late-cycle momentum. The October 4 first round, and possible runoff three weeks later, will determine the winner.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,708Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial contest remains a near-dead heat because incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues has stabilized his approval ratings in the mid-to-high 50s through visible gains in education and infrastructure, offsetting earlier erosion while ACM Neto consolidates urban and right-leaning support after his party’s 2025 national break with the Lula administration. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show the two candidates within or at the edge of the margin of error in first-round scenarios, with the August 9 debate producing no decisive shift. Neto’s alignment with broader opposition forces and strength in Salvador contrast with Rodrigues’s recovery among municipal leaders who previously backed the challenger, sustaining trader consensus that either candidate could prevail depending on turnout and late-cycle momentum. The October 4 first round, and possible runoff three weeks later, will determine the winner.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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