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Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão
Eleições·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão

Eduardo Braide 45%

Orleans Brandão 35%

Enilton Rodrigues 15.0%

Lahesio Bonfim 12%

Polymarket
NOVO

Eduardo Braide 45%

Orleans Brandão 35%

Enilton Rodrigues 15.0%

Lahesio Bonfim 12%

Polymarket
NOVO

Eduardo Braide

$544 Vol.

45%

Orleans Brandão

$69 Vol.

35%

Enilton Rodrigues

$275 Vol.

11%

Lahesio Bonfim

$68 Vol.

12%

Felipe Camarão

$64 Vol.

9%

André Luís

$169 Vol.

4%

The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Early in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with the October 4 first-round vote still months away and party conventions scheduled for July-August, trader odds reflect an open field among multiple pre-candidates. Eduardo Braide (PSD), the São Luís mayor, holds the highest implied probability at 44.5% after formalizing his bid and leading recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling by wide margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Orleans Brandão (MDB) follows at 36%, benefiting from ties to the outgoing administration amid a fragmented left that includes Lahesio Bonfim (Novo) at 10.5% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 9%. The spread across additional names and "other" keeps the contest competitive, with potential shifts tied to alliance formation, candidate consolidation, or late polling movements before ballots close.

The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,189
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Early in the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, with the October 4 first-round vote still months away and party conventions scheduled for July-August, trader odds reflect an open field among multiple pre-candidates. Eduardo Braide (PSD), the São Luís mayor, holds the highest implied probability at 44.5% after formalizing his bid and leading recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling by wide margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Orleans Brandão (MDB) follows at 36%, benefiting from ties to the outgoing administration amid a fragmented left that includes Lahesio Bonfim (Novo) at 10.5% and Felipe Camarão (PT) at 9%. The spread across additional names and "other" keeps the contest competitive, with potential shifts tied to alliance formation, candidate consolidation, or late polling movements before ballots close.

The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,189
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Braide" at 45%, followed by "Orleans Brandão" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão" is "Eduardo Braide" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Orleans Brandão" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Maranhão" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.