Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 38-40% support in the first round against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 32-35%, a gap often outside the margin of error. Her broad coalition backing and institutional agenda events in Belém and the interior over the past week reinforce trader consensus around her 59.5% implied probability of winning the October 4 first round or potential October 25 runoff. Daniel's consistent second-place showing and name recognition keep his odds near 32.5%, while other registered candidates like Araceli Lemos and José Moita remain in single digits and below 1% market pricing. The race stays competitive due to high undecided shares near 13-24% and the state's electoral dynamics, with any late shifts in turnout or alliances potentially narrowing the gap before voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHana Ghassan 61%
Dr. Daniel Santos 39%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$46,612 Vol.
$46,612 Vol.
4 out 2026
Hana Ghassan
60%
Dr. Daniel Santos
31%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Hana Ghassan 61%
Dr. Daniel Santos 39%
Éder Mauro 1.2%
Dirceu Ten Caten <1%
$46,612 Vol.
$46,612 Vol.
4 out 2026
Hana Ghassan
$17,312 Vol.
60%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$12,558 Vol.
31%
Éder Mauro
$5,308 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$2,835 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$2,831 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$2,892 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rocha
$2,875 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 38-40% support in the first round against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 32-35%, a gap often outside the margin of error. Her broad coalition backing and institutional agenda events in Belém and the interior over the past week reinforce trader consensus around her 59.5% implied probability of winning the October 4 first round or potential October 25 runoff. Daniel's consistent second-place showing and name recognition keep his odds near 32.5%, while other registered candidates like Araceli Lemos and José Moita remain in single digits and below 1% market pricing. The race stays competitive due to high undecided shares near 13-24% and the state's electoral dynamics, with any late shifts in turnout or alliances potentially narrowing the gap before voting.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$46,612Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 38-40% support in the first round against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 32-35%, a gap often outside the margin of error. Her broad coalition backing and institutional agenda events in Belém and the interior over the past week reinforce trader consensus around her 59.5% implied probability of winning the October 4 first round or potential October 25 runoff. Daniel's consistent second-place showing and name recognition keep his odds near 32.5%, while other registered candidates like Araceli Lemos and José Moita remain in single digits and below 1% market pricing. The race stays competitive due to high undecided shares near 13-24% and the state's electoral dynamics, with any late shifts in turnout or alliances potentially narrowing the gap before voting.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$46,612Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation to run for Senate, leads recent polling with 38-40% support in the first round against Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) at 32-35%, a gap often outside the margin of error. Her broad coalition backing and institutional agenda events in Belém and the interior over the past week reinforce trader consensus around her 59.5% implied probability of winning the October 4 first round or potential October 25 runoff. Daniel's consistent second-place showing and name recognition keep his odds near 32.5%, while other registered candidates like Araceli Lemos and José Moita remain in single digits and below 1% market pricing. The race stays competitive due to high undecided shares near 13-24% and the state's electoral dynamics, with any late shifts in turnout or alliances potentially narrowing the gap before voting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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